Salutations Senors, Senoras, Senoritas, Statisticians & Strategists,

(Today’s post is sponsored by the letter ‘S’)

Hi, I’m Super Safi and you may remember me from such stats and strategy posts as KEM Farming and the advanced losing-to-win Superheroes battle strategy.

After a stressful week of work or school, the weekend is finally here. And what better way to spend the weekend than talking math. So every few Saturday’s, I’ll come to you with a post that delves into the wonderful world of numbers, stats, and/or strategies.

This week we look at Springfield Downs.

*Springfield Downs Odds Table*

Odds |
Payout |
XP |
% Chance |

2-1 | $6,000 | 75XP | 50.51% |

5-1 | $12,000 | 100XP | 25.25% |

9-1 | $20,000 | 150XP | 15.15% |

19-1 | $40,000 | 250XP | 7.58% |

99-1 | $200,000 | 500XP | 1.52% |

Consolation Prize |
$0 |
50XP |

So what is your best bet? Let’s take a look at what happens over 1,000 spins (roughly a years worth of tapping for the hardcore Addict who’ll play the downs almost the maximum three times per day).

2-1:

50.51% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $6,000 and 75XP.

49.49% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 505.1 x (-2,000 + 6,000) + 494.9 x (-2,000) = $1,030,600

XP Formula = 505.1 x (75) + 494.9 x (50) = 62,627.5XP

So after 1,000 bets at 2-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,030,600 in-game cash and 62,627.5XP.

5-1:

25.25% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $12,000 and 100XP.

74.75% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 252.5 x (-2,000 + 12,000) + 747.5 x (-2,000) = $1,030,000

XP Formula = 252.5 x (100) + 747.5 x (50) = 62,625XP

So after 1,000 bets at 5-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,030,000 in-game cash and 62,625XP.

9-1:

15.15% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $20,000 and 150XP.

84.85% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 151.5 x (-2,000 + 20,000) + 848.5 x (-2,000) = $1,030,000

XP Formula = 151.5 x (150) + 848.5 x (50) = 65,150XP

So after 1,000 bets at 9-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,030,000 in-game cash and 65,150XP.

19-1:

7.58% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $40,000 and 250XP.

92.42% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 75.8 x (-2,000 + 40,000) + 924.2 x (-2,000) = $1,032,000

XP Formula = 75.8 x (250) + 924.2 x (50) = 65,160XP

So after 1,000 bets at 19-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,032,000 in-game cash and 65,160XP.

99-1:

1.52% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $200,000 and 500XP.

98.48% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 15.2 x (-2,000 + 200,000) + 984.8 x (-2,000) = $1,040,000

XP Formula = 15.2 x (500) + 984.8 x (50) = 56,840XP

So after 1,000 bets at 99-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,040,000 in-game cash and 56,840XP.

*Springfield Downs Net Table after 1,000 bets*

Odds |
Net Cash |
Net XP |
% Chance |

2-1 | $1,030,600 | 62,627.5XP | 50.51% |

5-1 | $1,030,000 | 62,625XP | 25.25% |

9-1 | $1,030,000 | 65,150XP | 15.15% |

19-1 | $1,032,000 | 65,160XP |
7.58% |

99-1 | $1,040,000 |
56,840XP | 1.52% |

So if you’re into in-game cash, your best bet is to stick to 99-1. But if you prefer XP, your best bet is to stick to 19-1.

How do you bet at the track? Will you change your betting ways after this post? Would you prefer in-game cash via 99-1 or XP via 19-1? What aspect of the game’s stats and strategies would you like me to discuss next? Share your thoughts. You know we love hearing from you.

Minigames:

Springfield Downs, Go Kart Tracks, Insanity Mode, Sideshow You, Rocket Launch Pad, Claw Machine, Scratch-R, The Eliminator, Bigclaw, Excavation Site, Drone Scan, Sci-Fighter, Where’s Maggie

I always bet on “Not A Chance” no matter the odds. This seems to work well for me

LikeLiked by 1 person

I sit firmly in the Pick the Same Dog camp. Despite his lack of aerodynamics and two lazy eyes, Drool Britannia! plays a tough physical game with his spiked collar and thick skull. Go Drools!

LikeLiked by 1 person

I slightly disagree with your conclusion that the 99-1 is the best choice for maximizing your money. You cannot spend buy things today with the money you will earn tomorrow. You could certainly invest the money in additional houses or KEM farming.

LikeLike

Nevertheless, I don’t think it’s a significant difference either way, and it comes down to preference in my opinion. I just like to play devil’s advocate. I always enjoy reading your articles Safi! Thanks for spending the time on the write up!

LikeLiked by 1 person

Love it! thanks for the stats Safi! So I am somewhat superstitious… I have been betting on Drool Brittania every bet since day 1… doesn’t matter where he shows up on the betting odds.. I just go with that dog. Sometimes I win the big One.. most times I get the smallest one.. , sometimes nothing, but I always go for the same dog.. Drool Brittania.. he’s been good to me..must stay loyal. LOL!

LikeLiked by 1 person

In the beginning of me regularly playing Springfield Downs—back when they dropped the price from 5k to 2k and changed the odds—it seemed like one dog kept winning. I knew this was preposterous, and being a mathematician I knew the that the fact it appeared the same dog kept winning was due to chance, but the emotional feel of the same dog winning sent me betting this one dog time after time. I win more than half the races, which keeps me coming back. Not for the money or the XP, just for the heck of it.

LikeLiked by 1 person

So if you play a straight line (or even jump around a get lucky). You will spend 2,000,000 to get 1,040,000 back max theoretically.Sounds like i’m done playing the downs then. As for the XP, A couple of KEM’s and i surpass the XP easily.

LikeLiked by 1 person

Just to clarify, you spend $2,000,000 to get $3,040,000 for a net profit of $1,040,000.

LikeLike

I just learned that I receive more xp (170) from visiting a neighbor’s Krustyland than from visiting their town (155). Any explanation for this? Is it worth it? I usually cash in my tickets when I get over 30,000. Has anyone done the math?

LikeLiked by 1 person

Do you have a higher bonus multiplier in Krustyland than in Springfield?

LikeLike

Definitely not! Over 200% in Springfield. Only 5% in Krustyland.

LikeLike

I choose based on the last winner (usually the 2:1) so I pick the 2nd or third option (5 or 9) frequently and do fairly well. I almost always pick the top cart (2:1).

LikeLiked by 1 person

Awesome! Congrats to a analysts approach to a long game

Indeed makes a benefit to our fellas and beautifuls girls from TSTO Community

Cheers to Safi! 🆙

4lvinos from 🇧🇷

LikeLiked by 1 person

Thanks for putting in the odds and expected payouts based on 1,000 plays. That is a great way to look at this in the long run.

Pushing this a bit further though, an additional factor to consider is the time value of the in-game cash at different parts of the game. For example – I have only been playing the game for about a month and just hit level 40. For me, the 50/50 odds of turning a $2,000 bet into $6,000, is impactful at this point in the game because the risk of losing $2,000 versus the opportunity to generate an additional $4,000 often makes a short-term difference in my ability to do things like buying the next available building and/or the next boardwalk piece for Squidport, etc.

For example, the difference between losing $2,000 versus gaining an additional $4,000 can sometimes make or break my plans at the moment. I can think of several times when I had enough money to buy a new building + an additional Squidport piece, but then I will go and lose $2,000 – thus causing me to have to delay making the Squidport piece.

I can definitely see the logic though in going to 99-1 races though if/when I get to the point that I have way more in game cash than I need (like many of the people on here who have been playing for a long time). In the short run though, I will stick to the 50/50 chance of getting an additional $4,000, since I constantly need to keep generating in-game cash

LikeLiked by 2 people

On that note,

why not target the 9-1

More XP and a ~15% (~1/7) chance

✓ a more conservative choice

LikeLiked by 1 person

At your stage of play, I wouldn’t play the racetrack at all….there are much better uses of your cash at this point. I think I only played once until I had lots of cash to burn (and I still rarely ever play it, tbh).

LikeLike

I just always bet on the same dog, Not A Chance. It works out pretty well for me.

LikeLiked by 2 people

So do I. I choosed it because of it’s name 🙂 The same way I choosed one (actualy the white one) car.

LikeLike

Same here! Always Not A Chance. I’m very loyal. But with the car races I always go for the largest payout, even though it seems like I hardly ever win. It’s just awesome when I do!

LikeLiked by 1 person

Same here. I was born in London, so it’s Drool Britannia FTW! (Every so often, anyway ;-)) But, as mentioned above, I’m a veteran now, so have millions to burn!

LikeLiked by 1 person

LOL! I always bet on Not A Chance also & do pretty well. I may have to try choosing the high $ winner once in a while. I always choose the max $ winner in the go-cart game; not sure why I always pick the same dog! 🐶 RachelS

LikeLiked by 1 person

“So if you’re into in-game cash, your best bet is to stick to 99-1”

The difference is less than $10,000 of over $1,000,000. That’s hardly much of a difference. And I’m willing to bet (no pun intended) that people who often play 99-1 eventually stop playing as often since they rarely win, so over time they would win less. (Yes, I realize your models assume 1000 games for all options.)

So some of it comes down to the person’s style. Are they likely to get really frustrated when they go many many races without a win (and is that frustration worth $8,000 or so)? Would they “feel better” if they won a race 50% of the time (even though earning/race are less)? You can’t totally discount the human element.

LikeLiked by 1 person

I’m curious about your theory that players who only pick the 99:1 dog eventually stop playing as often – why wouldn’t they just start betting on the 2:1 dog instead?

For what it’s worth, I always play the 99:1 dog because I have enough in-game cash to not miss it when I lose, and the thrill of getting a 99:1 win is fun. (Also, I hate the idea of seeing the 99:1 dog win when I bet on a lower-stakes dog!) I have no interest in giving up. I’d like to hear if anybody actually does, though.

Also, from my experience, after 2+ years of playing twice daily (so, around 1,500 races), the 99:1 dog wins more often than once every 100 races. I’ve found that it actually wins about once every 50-60 races, on average. (So, once a month.) True, I’ve had dry spells of 2-3 months (100-150 races) with no wins, but I’ve also had it come in twice in the same week. I think it’s a good bet.

LikeLiked by 1 person

I was hoping you would cover the idea of betting on a particular dog. Thanks

Splaguet level I32

LikeLiked by 1 person

The math here is completely wrong. You misunderstand odds. 2 to 1 odds against means you lose 2 times for every 1 win. Therefore, you win 33% of the time and lose 67% of the time with 2:1 odds. Applying this correction to your math, the money payout turns out to be a wash for all 5 options. You net $0 regardless of the option you choose in the long run. The XP is different, although minor differences. I calculate XP payouts of 58,333; 58,333; 60,000; 60,000; and 54,500 for 2:1, 5:1, 9:1, 19:1, and 99:1 options, respectively. Using these correct probabilities, I also ran a probabilistic simulation, using 1,000 trials, and using both a truly random Monte Carlo sampling methodology and a stratified Latin hypercube sampling methodology, I get similar results of roughly no net dollar win or loss for each option (due to whole numbers of trials with fractional probabilities, there are sometimes a non-zero net).

LikeLike

The math in your comment is completely wrong. You misunderstand the first table. The first table shows he actual win percentage coded into the game.

2-1 odds in a casino may mean 33% win, 67% loss. But as programmed into the code, 2-1 means you win 50.51% of the time.

LikeLike

Why on Earth would TSTO/EA intentionally code wrong statistics into the game?!? Smh at STEM ed these days…

LikeLiked by 1 person

I agree. Considering how educated and bright the people behind the show are, you’d think they would hire people behind the game who know the difference between 1-1 odds and 2-1 odds.

To quote one Homer Jay Simpson: “How is education supposed to make me feel smarter? Besides, every time I learn something new, it pushes some of the old stuff out of my brain. Remember when I took that home wine making course, and I forgot how to drive?”

LikeLike

Marge: That’s because you were drunk.

Homer: And how.

LikeLiked by 2 people

looking for more details on your observation

very interesting approach on the Probability!

May I suggest you to go over

KEM Farming

because KEMCycle%boost with Mistery Box

should be more fun for you

look the math there it’s exciting !

For example

.there is a curve on % per day gained

against the # Bonuts per 4hCycle

if we go over Time and acumulate %.

With my first KEM farming

I had 3Bonut 〰 1~2% per 4hCycle

4Bonut 〰 jump to 2,12% per 4hCycle

5Bonut 〰 jump to 2,43%

6Bonut 〰 to 3,4%

7Bonut 〰 to 4,23% ( 105~123 donuts per day )

8 still moving to this level of farming

The game in cash per 4h Cash

in the beginning was 290000Xp

now reached more them 800000Xp

LikeLiked by 1 person