Super Safi’s Saturday Stats & Strategy Special: Springfield Downs

Salutations Senors, Senoras, Senoritas, Statisticians & Strategists,

(Today’s post is sponsored by the letter ‘S’)

 

Hi, I’m Super Safi and you may remember me from such stats and strategy posts as KEM Farming and the advanced losing-to-win Superheroes battle strategy.

After a stressful week of work or school, the weekend is finally here. And what better way to spend the weekend than talking math. So every few Saturday’s, I’ll come to you with a post that delves into the wonderful world of numbers, stats, and/or strategies.

 

This week we look at Springfield Downs.

Springfield Downs Odds Table

Odds Payout  XP % Chance
2-1 $6,000 75XP 50.51%
5-1 $12,000 100XP 25.25%
9-1 $20,000 150XP 15.15%
19-1 $40,000 250XP 7.58%
99-1 $200,000 500XP 1.52%
Consolation Prize $0 50XP

So what is your best bet? Let’s take a look at what happens over 1,000 spins (roughly a years worth of tapping for the hardcore Addict who’ll play the downs almost the maximum three times per day).

 

2-1:

50.51% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $6,000 and 75XP.

49.49% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 505.1 x (-2,000 + 6,000) + 494.9 x (-2,000) = $1,030,600

XP Formula = 505.1 x (75) + 494.9 x (50) = 62,627.5XP

So after 1,000 bets at 2-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,030,600 in-game cash and 62,627.5XP.

 

5-1:

25.25% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $12,000 and 100XP.

74.75% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 252.5 x (-2,000 + 12,000) + 747.5 x (-2,000) = $1,030,000

XP Formula = 252.5 x (100) + 747.5 x (50) = 62,625XP

So after 1,000 bets at 5-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,030,000 in-game cash and 62,625XP.

 

9-1:

15.15% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $20,000 and 150XP.

84.85% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 151.5 x (-2,000 + 20,000) + 848.5 x (-2,000) = $1,030,000

XP Formula = 151.5 x (150) + 848.5 x (50) = 65,150XP

So after 1,000 bets at 9-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,030,000 in-game cash and 65,150XP.

 

19-1:

7.58% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $40,000 and 250XP.

92.42% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 75.8 x (-2,000 + 40,000) + 924.2 x (-2,000) = $1,032,000

XP Formula = 75.8 x (250) + 924.2 x (50) = 65,160XP

So after 1,000 bets at 19-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,032,000 in-game cash and 65,160XP.

 

99-1:

1.52% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $200,000 and 500XP.

98.48% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP

$ Formula = 15.2 x (-2,000 + 200,000) + 984.8 x (-2,000) = $1,040,000

XP Formula = 15.2 x (500) + 984.8 x (50) = 56,840XP

So after 1,000 bets at 99-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,040,000 in-game cash and 56,840XP.

 

Springfield Downs Net Table after 1,000 bets

Odds Net Cash  Net XP % Chance
2-1 $1,030,600 62,627.5XP 50.51%
5-1 $1,030,000 62,625XP 25.25%
9-1 $1,030,000 65,150XP 15.15%
19-1 $1,032,000 65,160XP 7.58%
99-1 $1,040,000 56,840XP 1.52%

So if you’re into in-game cash, your best bet is to stick to 99-1. But if you prefer XP, your best bet is to stick to 19-1.

 

 

How do you bet at the track? Will you change your betting ways after this post? Would you prefer in-game cash via 99-1 or XP via 19-1? What aspect of the game’s stats and strategies would you like me to discuss next? Share your thoughts. You know we love hearing from you.

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59 responses to “Super Safi’s Saturday Stats & Strategy Special: Springfield Downs

  1. So if you play a straight line (or even jump around a get lucky). You will spend 2,000,000 to get 1,040,000 back max theoretically.Sounds like i’m done playing the downs then. As for the XP, A couple of KEM’s and i surpass the XP easily.

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  2. I just learned that I receive more xp (170) from visiting a neighbor’s Krustyland than from visiting their town (155). Any explanation for this? Is it worth it? I usually cash in my tickets when I get over 30,000. Has anyone done the math?

    Liked by 1 person

  3. I choose based on the last winner (usually the 2:1) so I pick the 2nd or third option (5 or 9) frequently and do fairly well. I almost always pick the top cart (2:1).

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Awesome! Congrats to a analysts approach to a long game

    Indeed makes a benefit to our fellas and beautifuls girls from TSTO Community

    Cheers to Safi! 🆙

    4lvinos from 🇧🇷

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Thanks for putting in the odds and expected payouts based on 1,000 plays. That is a great way to look at this in the long run.

    Pushing this a bit further though, an additional factor to consider is the time value of the in-game cash at different parts of the game. For example – I have only been playing the game for about a month and just hit level 40. For me, the 50/50 odds of turning a $2,000 bet into $6,000, is impactful at this point in the game because the risk of losing $2,000 versus the opportunity to generate an additional $4,000 often makes a short-term difference in my ability to do things like buying the next available building and/or the next boardwalk piece for Squidport, etc.

    For example, the difference between losing $2,000 versus gaining an additional $4,000 can sometimes make or break my plans at the moment. I can think of several times when I had enough money to buy a new building + an additional Squidport piece, but then I will go and lose $2,000 – thus causing me to have to delay making the Squidport piece.

    I can definitely see the logic though in going to 99-1 races though if/when I get to the point that I have way more in game cash than I need (like many of the people on here who have been playing for a long time). In the short run though, I will stick to the 50/50 chance of getting an additional $4,000, since I constantly need to keep generating in-game cash

    Liked by 1 person

  6. I just always bet on the same dog, Not A Chance. It works out pretty well for me.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. “So if you’re into in-game cash, your best bet is to stick to 99-1”

    The difference is less than $10,000 of over $1,000,000. That’s hardly much of a difference. And I’m willing to bet (no pun intended) that people who often play 99-1 eventually stop playing as often since they rarely win, so over time they would win less. (Yes, I realize your models assume 1000 games for all options.)

    So some of it comes down to the person’s style. Are they likely to get really frustrated when they go many many races without a win (and is that frustration worth $8,000 or so)? Would they “feel better” if they won a race 50% of the time (even though earning/race are less)? You can’t totally discount the human element.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I’m curious about your theory that players who only pick the 99:1 dog eventually stop playing as often – why wouldn’t they just start betting on the 2:1 dog instead?

      For what it’s worth, I always play the 99:1 dog because I have enough in-game cash to not miss it when I lose, and the thrill of getting a 99:1 win is fun. (Also, I hate the idea of seeing the 99:1 dog win when I bet on a lower-stakes dog!) I have no interest in giving up. I’d like to hear if anybody actually does, though.

      Also, from my experience, after 2+ years of playing twice daily (so, around 1,500 races), the 99:1 dog wins more often than once every 100 races. I’ve found that it actually wins about once every 50-60 races, on average. (So, once a month.) True, I’ve had dry spells of 2-3 months (100-150 races) with no wins, but I’ve also had it come in twice in the same week. I think it’s a good bet.

      Liked by 1 person

  8. I was hoping you would cover the idea of betting on a particular dog. Thanks

    Splaguet level I32

    Liked by 1 person

  9. The math here is completely wrong. You misunderstand odds. 2 to 1 odds against means you lose 2 times for every 1 win. Therefore, you win 33% of the time and lose 67% of the time with 2:1 odds. Applying this correction to your math, the money payout turns out to be a wash for all 5 options. You net $0 regardless of the option you choose in the long run. The XP is different, although minor differences. I calculate XP payouts of 58,333; 58,333; 60,000; 60,000; and 54,500 for 2:1, 5:1, 9:1, 19:1, and 99:1 options, respectively. Using these correct probabilities, I also ran a probabilistic simulation, using 1,000 trials, and using both a truly random Monte Carlo sampling methodology and a stratified Latin hypercube sampling methodology, I get similar results of roughly no net dollar win or loss for each option (due to whole numbers of trials with fractional probabilities, there are sometimes a non-zero net).

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    • The math in your comment is completely wrong. You misunderstand the first table. The first table shows he actual win percentage coded into the game.
      2-1 odds in a casino may mean 33% win, 67% loss. But as programmed into the code, 2-1 means you win 50.51% of the time.

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      • Why on Earth would TSTO/EA intentionally code wrong statistics into the game?!? Smh at STEM ed these days…

        Liked by 1 person

        • I agree. Considering how educated and bright the people behind the show are, you’d think they would hire people behind the game who know the difference between 1-1 odds and 2-1 odds.

          To quote one Homer Jay Simpson: “How is education supposed to make me feel smarter? Besides, every time I learn something new, it pushes some of the old stuff out of my brain. Remember when I took that home wine making course, and I forgot how to drive?”

          Like

    • looking for more details on your observation
      very interesting approach on the Probability!

      May I suggest you to go over
      KEM Farming

      because KEMCycle%boost with Mistery Box
      should be more fun for you
      look the math there it’s exciting !

      For example
      .there is a curve on % per day gained
      against the # Bonuts per 4hCycle
      if we go over Time and acumulate %.

      With my first KEM farming
      I had 3Bonut 〰 1~2% per 4hCycle
      4Bonut 〰 jump to 2,12% per 4hCycle
      5Bonut 〰 jump to 2,43%
      6Bonut 〰 to 3,4%
      7Bonut 〰 to 4,23% ( 105~123 donuts per day )
      8 still moving to this level of farming

      The game in cash per 4h Cash
      in the beginning was 290000Xp
      now reached more them 800000Xp

      Liked by 1 person

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