Salutations Senors, Senoras, Senoritas, Statisticians & Strategists,
(Today’s post is sponsored by the letter ‘S’)
Hi, I’m Super Safi and you may remember me from such stats and strategy posts as KEM Farming and the advanced losing-to-win Superheroes battle strategy.
After a stressful week of work or school, the weekend is finally here. And what better way to spend the weekend than talking math. So every few Saturday’s, I’ll come to you with a post that delves into the wonderful world of numbers, stats, and/or strategies.
This week we look at Springfield Downs.
Springfield Downs Odds Table
| Odds | Payout | XP | % Chance |
| 2-1 | $6,000 | 75XP | 50.51% |
| 5-1 | $12,000 | 100XP | 25.25% |
| 9-1 | $20,000 | 150XP | 15.15% |
| 19-1 | $40,000 | 250XP | 7.58% |
| 99-1 | $200,000 | 500XP | 1.52% |
| Consolation Prize | $0 | 50XP |
So what is your best bet? Let’s take a look at what happens over 1,000 spins (roughly a years worth of tapping for the hardcore Addict who’ll play the downs almost the maximum three times per day).
2-1:
50.51% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $6,000 and 75XP.
49.49% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP
$ Formula = 505.1 x (-2,000 + 6,000) + 494.9 x (-2,000) = $1,030,600
XP Formula = 505.1 x (75) + 494.9 x (50) = 62,627.5XP
So after 1,000 bets at 2-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,030,600 in-game cash and 62,627.5XP.
5-1:
25.25% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $12,000 and 100XP.
74.75% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP
$ Formula = 252.5 x (-2,000 + 12,000) + 747.5 x (-2,000) = $1,030,000
XP Formula = 252.5 x (100) + 747.5 x (50) = 62,625XP
So after 1,000 bets at 5-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,030,000 in-game cash and 62,625XP.
9-1:
15.15% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $20,000 and 150XP.
84.85% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP
$ Formula = 151.5 x (-2,000 + 20,000) + 848.5 x (-2,000) = $1,030,000
XP Formula = 151.5 x (150) + 848.5 x (50) = 65,150XP
So after 1,000 bets at 9-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,030,000 in-game cash and 65,150XP.
19-1:
7.58% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $40,000 and 250XP.
92.42% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP
$ Formula = 75.8 x (-2,000 + 40,000) + 924.2 x (-2,000) = $1,032,000
XP Formula = 75.8 x (250) + 924.2 x (50) = 65,160XP
So after 1,000 bets at 19-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,032,000 in-game cash and 65,160XP.
99-1:
1.52% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get $200,000 and 500XP.
98.48% of the time, you spend $2,000 and get just 50XP
$ Formula = 15.2 x (-2,000 + 200,000) + 984.8 x (-2,000) = $1,040,000
XP Formula = 15.2 x (500) + 984.8 x (50) = 56,840XP
So after 1,000 bets at 99-1 odds, you would walk away with $1,040,000 in-game cash and 56,840XP.
Springfield Downs Net Table after 1,000 bets
| Odds | Net Cash | Net XP | % Chance |
| 2-1 | $1,030,600 | 62,627.5XP | 50.51% |
| 5-1 | $1,030,000 | 62,625XP | 25.25% |
| 9-1 | $1,030,000 | 65,150XP | 15.15% |
| 19-1 | $1,032,000 | 65,160XP | 7.58% |
| 99-1 | $1,040,000 | 56,840XP | 1.52% |
So if you’re into in-game cash, your best bet is to stick to 99-1. But if you prefer XP, your best bet is to stick to 19-1.
How do you bet at the track? Will you change your betting ways after this post? Would you prefer in-game cash via 99-1 or XP via 19-1? What aspect of the game’s stats and strategies would you like me to discuss next? Share your thoughts. You know we love hearing from you.
Minigames:
Springfield Downs, Go Kart Tracks, Insanity Mode, Sideshow You, Rocket Launch Pad, Claw Machine, Scratch-R, The Eliminator, Bigclaw, Excavation Site, Drone Scan, Sci-Fighter, Where’s Maggie
I always bet on the 99-1 dog, for the amount of in-game cash I already get I don’t really care.
I’ve never noticed a pattern to it, i’d say it’s just a well programmed algorithm that simulates chance, for example I’ve had times where I won’t win for a couple of weeks, then I’ve had times where I’ve won on the 99-1 dog three times in a row landing me with $600,000 in a few days; but I’d say I win the $200,000 at least once or twice a month easily.
I use the same strategy on the Go-Kart Track, it pays out at least once or twice per month as well, but it’s slightly less often for me.
I always bet on “Not A Chance” no matter the odds. This seems to work well for me
I sit firmly in the Pick the Same Dog camp. Despite his lack of aerodynamics and two lazy eyes, Drool Britannia! plays a tough physical game with his spiked collar and thick skull. Go Drools!
I slightly disagree with your conclusion that the 99-1 is the best choice for maximizing your money. You cannot spend buy things today with the money you will earn tomorrow. You could certainly invest the money in additional houses or KEM farming.
Nevertheless, I don’t think it’s a significant difference either way, and it comes down to preference in my opinion. I just like to play devil’s advocate. I always enjoy reading your articles Safi! Thanks for spending the time on the write up!
Love it! thanks for the stats Safi! So I am somewhat superstitious… I have been betting on Drool Brittania every bet since day 1… doesn’t matter where he shows up on the betting odds.. I just go with that dog. Sometimes I win the big One.. most times I get the smallest one.. , sometimes nothing, but I always go for the same dog.. Drool Brittania.. he’s been good to me..must stay loyal. LOL!