Salutations Stats & Strategy Specialists

(Today’s post is sponsored by the letter ‘S’)

A couple years ago, I wrote a post about KEM farming (which can be found here) and how it yields donuts. Since that time, many of you like myself have gone on to grow your KEM farms to over 100 KEMs, earning over 100 donuts every 4 hours, as you have raised your XP bonus percentage into the thousands.

At this point, some of you may wonder is it worth always going for 3 donuts when you fill an XP bar? Or are you better spending that money on additional KEMs?

Let’s take a look and see…

**ALWAYS GOING FOR 3 DONUTS**

There are 5 possible outcomes of those donut boxes if you always go for three donuts:

- 3 donuts on first try
- 2 donuts on first try, 3 donuts on second try (Cost $50,000)
- 1 donut on first try, 3 donuts on second try (Cost $50,000)
- 2 donuts on first try, 1 donut on second try, 3 donuts on third try (Cost $100,000)
- 1 donut on first try, 2 donuts on second try, 3 donuts on third try (Cost $100,000)

If we average these 5 probable outcomes (taking into account the first possibility is twice as likely as the other 4), you’ll earn 3 donuts at a cost of $50,000.

###### 18 donuts at a cost of $300,000 / 6 = 3 donuts at a cost of $50,000

So “Always Going For 3 Donuts” cost $16,667 per donut.

###### $50,000 / 3 donuts = $16,667 per donut

**THE QUESTION?**

Now the question is are you better off spending that money on more KEM instead of going for 3 donuts? Another way to put it, can you earn a donut for under $16,667 by buying extra KEMs?

**SPENDING MONEY ON KEM**

Unlike the 5 outcomes that exist if you always go for 3 donuts, there are only 3 possible outcomes of those donut boxes if you stop at the first choice:

- 3 donuts on first try
- 2 donuts on first try
- 1 donut on first try

So the average of these 3 outcomes is 2 donuts when you fill a 1,000,000 XP bar. So 1 donut would require 500,000 XP.

###### 6 donuts / 3 = 2 donuts

###### 1,000,000 XP / 2 donuts = 500,000 XP per donut

With $16,667, you can buy 1.157 KEM at a cost of $14,400. [*For the sake of simplifying the math, I’m ignoring the fact that the first 24 KEM are cheaper, resulting in a slightly lower average KEM price than $14,400 depending on the size of your farm. However, the more KEM in your farm, the closer the average cost gets to $14,400.*]

###### $16,667 / $14,400 per KEM = 1.1574305555555555555555555KEM

So the question is how can we earn 500,000 XP with 1.157 KEM. Or alternatively, that comes down to 431,991 XP per KEM.

###### 500,000 XP / 1.157 KEM = 431,991 XP per KEM

To earn 431,991 XP per KEM with the XP collider on, we divide by 5 for the XP collider resulting in 86,398 XP per KEM.

###### 431,991 XP per KEM / 5 = 86,398 XP per KEM

When we divide this by 2,000 (the base XP of KEM), we get 4,320 as the XP multiplication factor.

###### 86,398 XP per KEM / 2,000 XP per KEM = 4,320%

Minus the 100 that just naturally exists gives us a required 4,220% XP bonus in order to earn 431,991 XP per KEM with your XP collider on.

**CONCLUSION**

That means you need an XP bonus of 4,220% to make it wiser to spend your money on more KEM and just stopping at the first box, rather than keep going until you get to the box with 3 donuts.

**4,22****0%** is the magic XP number.

What is your XP bonus? Is it over 4,220%? If it is over 4,220%, have you been stopping at your first choice? If it under 4,220% have you kept going until you get 3 donuts? Sound off in the comments below. You know we love hearing from you.

I don’t get this surprise after levelling up????

LikeLike

You have to max out levels…

LikeLike

I have noticed a formula in my tapped out that swaps every couple of days so I am almost alyays getting 3 doughnuts on my second try it only ever goes to 3 when the pattern swaps to the second one they are always one is: 1,3,2: 3,2,1: 2,1,3 the other is: 2,3,1 : 3,1,2 : 1,2,3.

LikeLike

a bit late but this math is wrong, first every kem costs 10800 with resale. Also you forgot to include the costs of the kem. for example me with a multiplier of 1436 it costs roughly 7 kem’s per spin which costs a total of 75600. if I go for 3 donuts it will cost a total of 175600 or 58300 per donut. going for two would be the best as it would only cost a maximum of 62800 . spending anymore than that makes no sense as I could just buy another spin for that amount. use s kem calculator online to find the nitty gritty details, hope this helps.

LikeLike

Agree with dto…

There are in my mind 4 useful strategies:

1: Accept what you get, never tap. You get an average of 2 donuts. The cost of these depend on your XP.

2: Tap once when you get only one at first. You will get an average of 2.5 donuts. Every extra donut (vs strategy 1) costs 33333.

3: Always tap when you are sure of extra donuts, this means tap if you have only one donut or one and two donuts. You will get an average of 2.66 donuts. Every extra donut (vs strategy 2) costs 50000.

4: Always go for three. You will get 3 donuts. Every extra donut (vs strategy 3 will cost 75000.

Only looking at the cost and ignoring time spent tapping you are best of adopting strategy 1 if you have a multiplier of more than 1520%, strategy 2 with a multiplier above 980%, strategy 3 with a multiplier above 620% and 4 if your multiplier is less than 620%.

LikeLike

Umm huh I suck at math, please dummy this down. My level is 939 can’t raise it anymore. So how do I get all these doughnuts your speaking of? What is KEM?

LikeLike

KEM = Kwik-E-Mart, the most money efficient way to raise experience quickly. Before level 939, you gain 1 level (and 1 donut) for each level. Once you reach 939, you’ll start getting a ‘pick one’ bonus every 1M exp.

LikeLiked by 1 person

I don’t understand. I don’t get any options for this, I automatically get given 1 donut for levelling up. Which I think is about once a week. How do I make this happen?

LikeLiked by 1 person

You won’t get the option to select until you max out levels (939)

https://tstoaddicts.com/2016/05/20/the-end-of-level-updates-and-what-it-all-means/

LikeLike

Ok thanks Alissa much appreciated. Although gutted am a long way off ever having that option.

LikeLike

The ‘game’ starts after you reach level 939. Until then, you get 1 donut every time, but you level twice as often.

LikeLike

I looked at this differently- what is the best investment per 50k?

After selling back a KEM, the cost is 10,800 per. At 900% bonus, it takes 10 KEM to generate 1M XP, or roughly $100K per upgrade. On average you would earn 2 donuts per upgrade, so that is $50K per donut. This has led me to a “stop at 2” strategy: if you get 2 on your first try, stop. Spending another 50k only gives you a 50% chance of another donut (by getting 3 instead of the dreaded 1 donut). But if your first pick is only 1 donut, Another pick gives you on average a 1.5 donut payout for that 50k, so it’s worth it.

Previously I always went for 3 because I had more $ and donuts than I could spend on useful stuff. The reunion mystery box changed all that, I’m now farming every $ I get and still can’t empty out the new mystery box!

LikeLike

I never let my donut tally go below 20000

It’s easy to make a couple of hundred per day just spend half hour per day buying blood trucks to replace when new update comes

You can do the update in 3 lots of 2 weeks but complete the whole thing by about half an hour and then spend 2 weeks getting your donuts back (about800 to 1000)

LikeLiked by 1 person

I do 3 donuts regardless of cost as I have$42b

I can’t earn any more money coz it turns read at s limit of 42994000000 ish

So it doesn’t matter cost

AlsoKEM takes 4hours but blood trucks are instant and give 6 donuts per truck if you have do high enough

Also I’m on 3247%

How in gods name do you have room to put stuff to teach 4200%

LikeLike

I am at a little over 500%, don’t have a of money because I spend all my money on KEM farming, and I don’t have a lot of donuts because I spend my donuts on stuff when I get enough for what I want (while keeping my collider going) 😉 I always go for 3 donuts, unless I just don’t have enough money – like if I left the game broke and close to filling the meter again, and when I log back in, it’s donut time right off the bat.

LikeLike

If I want an XP multiplication factor of 7, for example, I would need 700% XP bonus. Subtracting the 100% that I naturally get, i would need a 600% XP bonus.

In order to get a 4,320 XP multiplication factor, it seems like you would need a 422,000% XP bonus!

LikeLike

I only take a stab at 3 when my reveal is 1 donut. I’ll settle for 2 and instead just buy more KEM. It’s working for me so far; had over 600 Donuts until I bought all the mystery boxes and premiums during this event 😂

LikeLiked by 1 person