Salutations Stats & Strategy Specialists
(Today’s post is sponsored by the letter ‘S’)
A couple years ago, I wrote a post about KEM farming (which can be found here) and how it yields donuts. Since that time, many of you like myself have gone on to grow your KEM farms to over 100 KEMs, earning over 100 donuts every 4 hours, as you have raised your XP bonus percentage into the thousands.
At this point, some of you may wonder is it worth always going for 3 donuts when you fill an XP bar? Or are you better spending that money on additional KEMs?
Let’s take a look and see…
ALWAYS GOING FOR 3 DONUTS
There are 5 possible outcomes of those donut boxes if you always go for three donuts:
- 3 donuts on first try
- 2 donuts on first try, 3 donuts on second try (Cost $50,000)
- 1 donut on first try, 3 donuts on second try (Cost $50,000)
- 2 donuts on first try, 1 donut on second try, 3 donuts on third try (Cost $100,000)
- 1 donut on first try, 2 donuts on second try, 3 donuts on third try (Cost $100,000)
If we average these 5 probable outcomes (taking into account the first possibility is twice as likely as the other 4), you’ll earn 3 donuts at a cost of $50,000.
18 donuts at a cost of $300,000 / 6 = 3 donuts at a cost of $50,000
So “Always Going For 3 Donuts” cost $16,667 per donut.
$50,000 / 3 donuts = $16,667 per donut
THE QUESTION?
Now the question is are you better off spending that money on more KEM instead of going for 3 donuts? Another way to put it, can you earn a donut for under $16,667 by buying extra KEMs?
SPENDING MONEY ON KEM
Unlike the 5 outcomes that exist if you always go for 3 donuts, there are only 3 possible outcomes of those donut boxes if you stop at the first choice:
- 3 donuts on first try
- 2 donuts on first try
- 1 donut on first try
So the average of these 3 outcomes is 2 donuts when you fill a 1,000,000 XP bar. So 1 donut would require 500,000 XP.
6 donuts / 3 = 2 donuts
1,000,000 XP / 2 donuts = 500,000 XP per donut
With $16,667, you can buy 1.157 KEM at a cost of $14,400. [For the sake of simplifying the math, I’m ignoring the fact that the first 24 KEM are cheaper, resulting in a slightly lower average KEM price than $14,400 depending on the size of your farm. However, the more KEM in your farm, the closer the average cost gets to $14,400.]
$16,667 / $14,400 per KEM = 1.1574305555555555555555555KEM
So the question is how can we earn 500,000 XP with 1.157 KEM. Or alternatively, that comes down to 431,991 XP per KEM.
500,000 XP / 1.157 KEM = 431,991 XP per KEM
To earn 431,991 XP per KEM with the XP collider on, we divide by 5 for the XP collider resulting in 86,398 XP per KEM.
431,991 XP per KEM / 5 = 86,398 XP per KEM
When we divide this by 2,000 (the base XP of KEM), we get 4,320 as the XP multiplication factor.
86,398 XP per KEM / 2,000 XP per KEM = 4,320%
Minus the 100 that just naturally exists gives us a required 4,220% XP bonus in order to earn 431,991 XP per KEM with your XP collider on.
CONCLUSION
That means you need an XP bonus of 4,220% to make it wiser to spend your money on more KEM and just stopping at the first box, rather than keep going until you get to the box with 3 donuts.
4,220% is the magic XP number.
What is your XP bonus? Is it over 4,220%? If it is over 4,220%, have you been stopping at your first choice? If it under 4,220% have you kept going until you get 3 donuts? Sound off in the comments below. You know we love hearing from you.