Springfield Downs Odds

This post has been sitting in the back burners for a while now, for that…I’m sorry. With the Updates and everything going on since October, it just didn’t have a high priority at the time. Due to recent requests, I am FINALLY putting this information out for our readers. Better late than never, right? Lol.

Many people have been asking me, “What are the odds of the Springfield Downs.” 

Springfield Downs

 

To start out, the cost to place a single bet is $2000, so not a bad cost if you are on higher levels and have a lil extra cash to spend. For those on the lower levels, it may be more of a risk due to money is not coming in so fast yet.

Springfield Downs

With your bet, you get to take a chance to triple your money…or make even more. No matter if you win or lose, you can always come back in 8 hours and bet again. Or, if you have the donuts to spare, you can always pay out 4 of your precious pink sprinkly sweeties to “Bet Again”.

You Won You Lost Springfield Downs

So the question is, is it worth it? Well that is completely up to you. Gambling will always be a risk. To give you a better understanding what some of your chances may be, here is the breakdown for the odds on a bet at the Dog Races.

Springfield Downs Odds Table

Odds Payout  XP % Chance
2-1 $6000 75XP 50.51%
5-1 $12,000 100XP 25.25%
9-1 $20,000 150XP 15.15%
19-1 $40,000 250XP 7.58%
99-1 $200,000 500XP 1.52%
Consolation Prize $0 50XP

As you can see, the 2-1 Odds seem to have a higher chance of paying out if you bet on them. The Dogs themselves will switch around from place to place, so it is more about betting on the Odds than it is the Dog itself.

Dog Races Springfield Downs

 

So there you have it. A quick and easy breakdown of placing bets/the odds at Springfield Downs. How have YOUR bets gone? Win the Jackpot payout yet? If so, how many times? Do YOU have a favorite Dog you bet on no matter its placement? Sound off below in the comments.

 

HOPPY Tappin’

Bunny Icon 2

~Bunny~

 

93 responses to “Springfield Downs Odds

  1. I just tried the 99-1 odds on a whim and I won! I stopped playing the downs for the past 6 mos because I always lost the 2-1. Not sure why I won now, but I just hit the jackpot!
    -GBlevins79

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  2. Believe it or not I managed to get the $200,000. It first started out when I chose the 2-1 odds, AKA Drool Brittania! Unfortunately, I lost. It hen told me the “Wait 8 hours” notice. I thought to myself, “I’m not wasting 8 hours to race again, that’s stupid!” I decided to sacrifice 4 of my 7 delicious pink sprinkled donuts to try again. It rushed it up and let me bet again. I decided to pick Obedience School Dropout. After that, I managed to win the $200,000. I don’t know if it’s just sheer luck or maybe it was a bug. So there you have it. That’s how I won $200,000 from the Springfield Downs.

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  3. Assuming those winning percentages are true (for example, actual 2-1 odds is a 33% chance to win, 3 total opportunities, 2 chances to lose, 1 chance to win, 1/3 = 33%) it doesn’t matter which bet you make because they all payout the same in the end.

    Imagine that you placed 100 bets at 2-1 odds. Your total cost to bet would be $200,000. If 50.51% of those bets won you would win about $303,000, netting you winnings of $103,000. The math on all the other odds always nets about $103,000.

    However, if you round down to 50% chance on 2-1 odds (since 50.51% would mean you win on 50 1/2 bets out of 100 and you can’t win half a bet) the winnings become $100,000 for 2-1, 5-1, & 9-1 odds. 19-1 would win $80,000. 99-1 would break even (spend $200k making 100 bets, 1 of those bets will pay $200k).

    If you use actual odds (2-1 = 33% chance to win, and so on) every option results in breaking even (3 bets on 2-1 odds would cost $6,000, one bet would pay $6,000, and so on).

    So there you go! It doesn’t really matter what bet you make, aside from the XP you get as a consolation prize. But, if you are going to bet, pick from the three safest because they might actually get the most return.

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    • Your math is spot-on. Each of the bets are identical from a dollar payout perspective. But, the XP payout is different because of the consolation 50XP you get for losing:

      The 2:1 bet has a 50.51% chance of winning you 75XP, and a 40.49% chance of giving you 50XP for the loss. 50.51% x 75 + 40.49% x 50 = 62.6 XP per play (on average). For the other bets:

      5:1, 25.25% chance of 100XP, 74.75% chance of 50XP = 62.6 XP (same)
      9:1, 15.15% chance of 150XP, 84.85% chance of 50XP = 65.2 XP (better)
      19:1, 7.58% chance of 250XP, 92.42% chance of 50XP = 65.2 XP (better)
      99:1, 1.51% chance of 500XP, 98.49% chance of 50XP = 56.8 XP (much worse)

      The bets all return the same Dollars, but the 9:1 and 19:1 bets return more XP (65.2 per bet, on average) than any of the other bets.

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  4. How do u get Springfield downs??

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  5. I seem most likely to win when I bet for dogbiscuit at 20,000 🙂

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  6. I lose every time!! I take the 2-1 odds and figure it has to win at some point but…nope…

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  7. I once won the 99 to 1 odds three times in a row it was my best wining streak but I haven’t won one sense

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  8. All depends of luck anyway add me TheLastAngel82

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  9. 😦 I think I deleted springfield downs… Is there any way to get i back?

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  10. I won the jackpot of 200,000!!! Yahooo! Ive been winning a lot lately! I think there is some sort of pattern..anyhoo so excited!

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  11. Bunny,

    Where did you get the chance of winning from?

    I think Brian Q. Lehmann is close, but I would guess that the actual numbers are

    50.5050505050505050505…%
    25.2525252525252525252…%
    15.1515151515151515151…%
    7.57575757575757575757…%
    1.51515151515151515151..%

    which would make sense given the math easter eggs in the Simpsons and that it would make the expected value of every bet the same.

    E.V. = $1030.303030303030303030…..

    The math follows

    If x1 is the chance that the dog with odds n1 wins, then the expected value of the bet on that dog for a $1 bet is

    E1 = n1*x1+(1-x1) = (n1+1)*x1+1

    If x2 is the chance that the dog with odds n2 wins, then the expected value of the bet on that dog for a $1 bet is

    E2 = (n2+1)*x2+1 etc.

    If all bets have the same expected value

    E1 = E2 or

    x2 = (n1+1) / (n2+1)

    But the sum of the chances of each dog winning must be 1 so

    E1+E2+E3+E4+E5=1

    which if x1 is the chance of the 2:1 dog, works out as

    x1 = (1/3) / (1/3+1/6+1/10+1/20+1/100) =0.5050505050505050505050…..

    If x2 is the chance of the 2:1 dog then

    x2 = x1 * (1/3) / (1/6) = 0.252525252525252525252525252525…..

    and the rest follow the same way.

    If this is true, then it matters not which dog you bet on, the return in the long term is the same.

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  12. OK I have to ask how do so many people have so much money in the bank I’m a level 23 or 24 I don’t remember which, but I can only come up with about 30-40,000 a day which is just enough money to build the buildings I need to complete my quests. Is there some secret to getting a lot of money that I am missing? I play this game every day and I check it at least 5-6 times during the day and every 30-60 minutes at night. I feel like I’m missing something

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    • You’re fine. It takes time to build up. After a while of playing (some of us 2 yrs+) you have extra items collected along with bonus % and it adds up. Lots of neighbors that visit you and you them daily also help.

      No worries. We were all there one time.

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    • I slowly started building up lots of houses. At first I did brown because you can collect quicker. Then blue. I have around 50 blue houses and even more brown houses. My money adds up quick this way. My screen name is reneedipe if you want to add me

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    • I know the feeling. I know someone who has a bug in her game that somehow allows Lisa to “clean up springfield” even when there is no rubble there! I’ve seen my friend do this! No tricks! It’s just there! So my friend repeats every day and eventually gets one donut per day. Same friend also won the jackpot on the scratch-r’ twice on the first month of playing, I’ve been at it for 2 months and haven’t won it. Everytime I visit the town, there are more and more buildings and characters that such friend claims to have gotten just from performing tasks and buildiung new stuff and not going fo squidport (which meanwhile is already there, even more advanced than mine) and not givng the characters 60 minute tasks when work is out. Meanwhile I’ve seen 3 premium characters walking around my friend’s town and I gave up figuring it out. I’m just playing at my own pace and I’m working on “composite odds”. I’ve gained 20000$ from the dog-track one because whenever the 2-1 dog has won a couple of times in a row, I know that the odds of that dog winning are that much lower. So the other odds are that much higher, and I go for one of the underdogs. 😉

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  13. I have not won yet, and i mostly bet on the low odds. Around 10 games, what to do?
    ****

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  14. I always play the 19:1 odds. I win frequently enough that I’m happy to keep playing those odds.

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