This post has been sitting in the back burners for a while now, for that…I’m sorry. With the Updates and everything going on since October, it just didn’t have a high priority at the time. Due to recent requests, I am FINALLY putting this information out for our readers. Better late than never, right? Lol.

Many people have been asking me, *“What are the odds of the Springfield Downs.” *

To start out, the cost to place a single bet is $2000, so not a bad cost if you are on higher levels and have a lil extra cash to spend. For those on the lower levels, it may be more of a risk due to money is not coming in so fast yet.

With your bet, you get to take a chance to triple your money…or make even more. No matter if you win or lose, you can always come back in 8 hours and bet again. Or, if you have the donuts to spare, you can always pay out 4 of your precious pink sprinkly sweeties to “Bet Again”.

So the question is, is it worth it? Well that is completely up to you. Gambling will always be a risk. To give you a better understanding what some of your chances may be, here is the breakdown for the odds on a bet at the Dog Races.

**Springfield Downs Odds Table**

Odds |
Payout |
XP |
% Chance |

2-1 | $6000 | 75XP | 50.51% |

5-1 | $12,000 | 100XP | 25.25% |

9-1 | $20,000 | 150XP | 15.15% |

19-1 | $40,000 | 250XP | 7.58% |

99-1 | $200,000 | 500XP | 1.52% |

Consolation Prize |
$0 |
50XP |

As you can see, the 2-1 Odds seem to have a higher chance of paying out if you bet on them. The Dogs themselves will switch around from place to place, so it is more about betting on the Odds than it is the Dog itself.

So there you have it. A quick and easy breakdown of placing bets/the odds at Springfield Downs. How have YOUR bets gone? Win the Jackpot payout yet? If so, how many times? Do YOU have a favorite Dog you bet on no matter its placement? Sound off below in the comments.

HOPPY Tappin’

~Bunny~

Okay so far I’ve been doing this and it’s worked so far. I start of with 2-1 odds, and I won, so I kept the laying 2-1 till I got to my fifth turn in which I chose the 5-1 odds and I won. So now I’m thinking this may just be a fluke, so I carried on with 2-1 odds winning and losing some then when it came to my ninth turn I played 9-1 and I won. It may all be a fluke, but I’ll keep trying lol

Okay so I thought you’re think was very interesting so played and did 2-1 and kept track of whice odds actually won. It was the 99-1 odds. So I used some donuts to do it again immediately after because it piqued my curiosity, again betting 2-1 odds and won. I believe you are very much on to something here 🙂 I’ll visit you if you’d like to add me. Kinda low level still, 20, but a daily player, almost hourly really. Origin name Tevis_love

I just downloaded springfield down. Now my fame has a light shining on it and its locked the whole system up? Can anyone help?

Hmm…try a hard close and see if that helps. If not try uninstalling and reinstalling….if that doesn’t work then it’s time to contact EA and let them know what’s up so they can troubleshoot it for you 🙂

I have exactly the same problem. Did yours go away?

I see it as a capital allocation problem. If I have a few thousand extra sitting in the bank, I might as well go with the 2:1 odds because I can play enough to average a small percentage of growth, kind of like buying bonds.

However, if I only have $2000, the 2:1 bet it too severe and I’d be better buying a blue house for $1800. Assuming I only collect rent once a day and ignoring the land price issues, I can earn enough to buy a second blue house after twelve days, a third after six more days, a fourth after four more days, etc. This method requires more clicks but guarantees exponential growth on your investment.

I just bet the 99-1 and won on my first try!

HOWEVER right after that the game said it lost connection and now all my money is gone 🙁 anyone know howI could get the money back??

You could ask EA. Usually I see folks lose donuts or an item after a disconnect and EA hooks them up. Not sure how they feel about in-game cash but it can’t hurt to ask.

am I the only one who played this and did only 99-1 bets for weeks without any reward? seriously, I bet once a day sometimes even twice, and I haven’t gotten any reward from this bet yet (3-4 weeks I think)…

could this be a glitch?

No. I went a LONG time before I won it (months and months).

I also went months and months before winning. Actually, it was five months – I have a spreadsheet (yes, I’m a nerd). Since then it’s been of course sporadic. Once I won twice on the 99-1 in one week. So I think it’s reliably random.

thank you both… maybe I just need some patience (not my best quality) – and Brian, FYI, I’m also a nerd. and I also made TSTO spreadsheets. We are in good company 😉

1.52% is an extremely small percentage. Even if you do it every single time you play for the rest of your life, you still may never win. It’s definitely not a glitch. Just how percentages work:-(

Hi im looking to add more people on Simpsons tap out i play everyday and will not vandalize please add “bbyjoel945”

So I would generally play the 2:1 odds and switch up to 5:1 if I got three in a row right at 2:1. I’d win quite often, but the payout as stated was quite low. But after reading this article, I switched to 99:1 since March 28th, and just now won $200,000 on just my seventh attempt! Thank you Addicts!

Woohoo!! 🙂

Drool Britannia!! all day…. that dog has won me so much mooolah!

(or as i affectionately refer to him, drooly B-baby!)

Lol @ Drooly B 😛

A lot of folks have done the math, and I disagree with several of them. So I thought I’d post the actual math I used to come to this conclusion: It basically doesn’t matter which one you choose.

In probability, there is a principle called Expected Value, created especially for situations like this. You take the chance you win and multiply it by the winnings. Do the same thing for the chance you lose. Then add those numbers together and get the Expected Value. You can then multiply the EV by 100 to get what you’d expect to win after 100 plays.

For example:

On 2 to 1 odds, the Expected Value is:

(4,000 x .5051) + (-2,000 x .4949) = 1,030.60

That means that every time you play the 2 to 1 odds, over time you expect to win $1,030.60 per play. That’s above and beyond the $2,000 you invested – $1,030.60 profit.

Doing this for the other odds gives you:

2 to 1: $1,030.60

5 to 1: $1,030.00

9 to 1: $1,030.00

19 to 1: $1,032.00

99 to 1: $1,040.00

Notice how they’re all basically the same. EA was pretty clever when they came up with this game.

I’m a math major and tutor probability and statistics all the time, fwiw credibility-wise.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooh another person with brains??!! MMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmm 🙂

I’m not a Math Major or anything like that, but I took a look at the numbers before reading your post and came up with the same results. So I agree.

Pleased to see someone with more credibility came up with the same results.

Thanks for doing the math, Brian! You saved me some work =]

So for all you people out there — it pays to play, unlike in real life casinos and tracks. There, they always make sure the expected value is negative, so you’re always losing money in the long run. Here, because the expected value is positive, you’re making money in the long run, so the more you play, the more you make.

And as to which odds to bet on, it doesn’t matter in the long run, though the lower odds (99:1) will pay out less frequently, so the income will not be as steady (boom and bust all the way). Personally, I always play the 2:1.

I have to ask because i like statistics and feel i need this explained to me but if we spend 2000 each and every time and the outcomes for winning equal a multiple of 2000, then how would we end up making a profit of 1030. 99×2 should give us a profit of at most (if winning on first go) 198000 and at least (if winning on the 99th time a profit of 2000 so how do we end up with half that. Not criticising just need and explanation (havent studied stats for a year and am forgetting some of it)

Lol. Luck. You forget that ALL computer games have built in some kind of “curve”. This means there is NO exact. A rough approx, but never an exact as the outcome “curve” will vary from player to player. Some may get really lucky and hit win win win then walk away. Others may lose it all with nothing to show. It is really…luck. Lol

Hi Joel! I’m happy to explain. Basically, it’s because of a concept called “Expected Value,” which I’m sure your stats class touched on long ago. A simpler version could be this: You play a game for free where you win $100 25% of the time and you win nothing 75% of the time. Since you will on average win once for every four times you play, your long-term winnings PER PLAY will be $25. That’s despite $25 never being an actual prize winning.

So in Springfield Downs, the $1,030 value is the average amount you make per play, assuming you play the game many times.

Does that clarify things? I hope so – but feel free to ask for more details!

Nice I went the actuarial science route and now work for a major insurance company. Stick with it. You get to do problems like what do I need to charge this person to hedge against a loss. Pretty fun.

I’ve got 200,000 twice in my life! If only winning the lotto was that easy 😄

I only won once the big prize, that was last week!!!!

I haven’t won once since I reach level 38 so yeah

Even on the 2-1 odds? 🙁

I had the same thing. I actually stopped playing the downs for almost 2 months because I lost about 10 times in a row on the 2-1 odds.

I haven’t won a bet too since i maxed out the Levels :/

Love drool britania. Alway bet on that dog. I do not keep track of the times i win… but kind of think he is my lucky dog

I’ve only won the 99-1 twice since January. But having 40.1 million in game cash I’m not worried about winning lol.

Is that all? Lol 😛

I’ve tried the 99-1 choice twice a day since February and still no luck XD I just want to win it once then ill switch to a slightly lower one I guess.

I always play the 99-1 one. It took me several months before I finally won it….sometimes it happens quick other times it takes a little while.

I did the exact same thing. I’ve kept track of every 99-1 bet over the last couple months in a spreadsheet. I lost 119 times before I won for the first time TODAY! I may keep on keeping track at the 99-1 level or I might switch back down.

The last time I placed a bet, my dog won, but a message popped up that said that even though I had won, Fat Tony overrode the results and declared other dog the winner!

*another dog the winner!

I always play the $200k dog… so far ive won it 4 times this week! Only $500k short of the cubic zirconia. Already got the other extravagant purchases…

Well, if those are REALLY the numbers…

Mr. Math Man here (you can call me 3M)… If you bet 100 times, always on the same odds, this is what you will have at the end:

1:2 $202,040 6263

1:5 $252,500 6263

1:9 $272,700 6515

1:19 $288,040 6516

1:99 $300,960 5684

Of course, if you bet 2 times a day, then you will be 101,000 up 50 days later.

Lol. Ahem Mr. Math Man…I thought you were working out the numbers for the consolation prize 😛

The XP points include the ones you get from the consolation prize.

What if I wanted JUST the Consolation XP? Pssssh. I thought THAT is what you were supposed to crunch 3M. 😛

(I love teasing geeky nerd boys)

Bunny, the second I saw you write “I love teasing geeky nerd boys” opened my eyes.

So THAT’S why you and Alissa bug me. I hardly make contact with Wookiee for some reason.

I figured with the betting that meh, it’s part of the game so I’ll play, even if I feel a little cash strapped. On Sunday I decided to switch from always betting on the 2-1 dog (which I was winning about 1 in three times, so not quite up to snuff) to always betting on the same dog, just to see what happens. In one town so far this week I’ve won the 19-1 twice, the 99-1 once, the 2-1 twice and the 5-1 once. I didn’t keep track of who won every race, so this isn’t totally scientific 😉 ; But at least this week the payout was nice—>300,000. If’d I’d been betting safer, assuming betting about twice a day (I have to sleep sometimes!) it would have only been about 30,000. My second town didn’t fare so well….2-1 once and 9-1 once. Still not that much less than I would have won if I’d kept betting safely. So, single dog it is!

I shared my “trick” for the dograce a while back…won the big one 11 times since Thanksgiving… 🙂

Like always betting on black in roulette? 😛

…touche!!! 😉

Early on when money was tighter I always bet the 2-1. Now I always bet on Dogbiscuit. The odds may not be as good, but it is more fun to root for one pooch.

If you consistently bid on the same odds over and over, you will break even. The ones you lose on will be made up for on the time you win. I usually do that so I can get rid of the little dog hovering over the Springfield downs but I don’t expect to make any money. If I’m feeling lucky I will bet on one with higher odds but that’s a rare occurrence

Reading the responses I see I’m an overly-cautious gambler, always bet the first, 2-1. Win way more often than not…. But 3M? Wow. I’ve never had more than 300,000 in pocket. What am I doing wrong>

It’s fun to just take a chance and go fro the big payout. Lol.

http://cdn.smosh.com/sites/default/files/bloguploads/simpsons-gifs-candy-girl.gif

lol

I’ve hit the 99-1 once. I almost always bet on the 9-1 dog, because it wins more frequently than 9-1 (@15% win, the payout should really be < 7-1)

I always bet on the 99-1 odds dog. I earn enough cash to offset the cost frequently enough. I’ve only won it once, and it was sweet to see the you won screen. Looking to add more neighbors? My screenname is JayNCoke.

Bunny,

Not sure what the consolation prize odds are. If you add all of the % chances you get 100% (really 100.01%). So, when do you get a consolation prize? Unless you can only win half the time?

It is whenever you pick the WRONG Dog and lose. I will let YOU figure out the numbers Mr. Math Man. 😛

Whoooo Hooooo! I finally won the big one today!! Only been playing since Easter, I bet whenever its open, Ive won 6000, 12,000, 40,000 ( couple of days ago ) and today 200,000, have easily won more than Ive bet. I was starting to think it wasnt worth it, but alas, its happened, 🙂

Off to spend some cashola!

Thanks Bunny, I know you guys are really busy and I didnt expect you to get to this so soon. You rock! 🙂

My pleasure. I am more than happy to help out. 🙂

I needed to get it out there. It has been sitting on my list for months now. Lol.

I’ve won the $200,000 jackpot 5 times so far (in the course of 2-3 months). The weird thing was that I won three times in the span of a single week! So far it’s been worth betting, and it’s a small thing to look forward, even if you usually lose.

It is really funny…one week I won it like 6 times.

I usually play the 2-1. Win most of the time. If I get on a bit of losing streak, I drop down to the 5-1. For some odd reason, it usually wins if I have missed 4-5 times on the 2-1. For kicks, when I have over $3M in the bank, I will bet the 99-1. I’ve played it probably 30 times and have won the big prize once.