Hey Howdy Hey Tappers!
There’s a new casino game in town….Cletus’ Dice Den is now live in our games!
This is considered Pre-Act 2…and you’ll still have until March 7th to earn the rest of those Red Chips for the Act 1 Prizes.
You’ll need Cletus free to start things off.
I’ll be back with more info about the Dice Den, once I’ve had a chance to break it all down. For now…it’s live in our games as another way to have some fun with the event! 🙂
What are your thoughts on Cletus’ Dice Den? Ready for another game? How’s your chip count? Sound off in the comments below, you know we love hearing from you!
Happy to add to the fact that the best numbers are 5 and 9. You would win an average of 59.3 chips per game playing these which is higher than all the other numbers you could choose. Really not worth playing 1 or 12 as you would only score an average of 32.4 chips per game as you would lose far more often.
With fair dice the best chance you have is getting a 7 I do not know how anyone is coming up with 5 and 9 as you best odds. With two dices there is 1 way to get 2 ( 1 and 1)
2 ways to get 3 ( 1 and 2 or 2 and 1)
3 ways to get 4 (1 and 3 or 2 and 2 or 3 and 1)
4 ways to get 5 (1 and 4 or 2 and 3 or 3 and 2 or 4 and 1)
5 ways to get 6 (1 and 5 or 2 and 4 or 3 and 3 or 4 and 2 or 5 and 1)
6 ways to get 7 (1 and 6 or 2 and 5 or 3 and 4 or 4 and 3 or 5 and 2 or 6 and 1)
5 ways to get 8 (2 and 6 or 3 and 5 or 4 and 4 or 5 and 3 or 6 and 2)
4 ways to get 9 (3 and 6 or 4 and 5 or 5 and 4 or 6 and 3)
3 ways to get 10 (4 and 6 or 5 and 5 or 6 and 4)
2 ways to get 11 (5 and 6 or 6 and 5)
1 way to get 12 (6 and 6)
So the best odds are rolling a 7.
No. this isn’t real dice. The game is rigged (in your favor) and many people are finding that the best strategy is to pick 2 or 12.
What people are saying is that if it were a fair game (it ain’t), the best payout in chips is to bet 5 or 9. If you bet 7 you win more often, but you win fewer chips.
This games is SO much better than the slots one. The slots game was incredibly tedious. With this game I can quickly spin through all my tokens… in fact it worked so well that I unlocked Lucius today (I was about 20,000 away this morning)
Lol – I feel the exact opposite! Have to roll three times to get to a result, instead of just one pull of the handle. And I think the slots are more fun, too – more sound effects and more variety in payout. Plus, I prefer not having the “responsibility” of picking a number — having to decide how much trade-off I want to make between risk and reward (and then feeling bad if I picked the wrong number), as opposed to just having it all be completely random.
To each his/her own! 🙂
I’ve had the dice jackpot loads of times today I bet on the number 2, seems to regularly land, lead to the weighted dice cheat or the other change your number cheat. Definitely better than the slots. I must have had at least 20 jackpots out of around 40 plays!
So which has the better payout: Slots or Dice? To me it looks like Slots. But nothing other than observation.
They’re exactly the same. It’s a matter of which you like. And for some people the slots pay better and for some the dice…just random
I played dice a bunch of times this morning at the dice den. You can throw the odds out the window. You win nearly every time just as with Moe’s slot machine, because you either: 1. Roll your number, 2. Don’t roll your number, but Cletus gives it to you anyway, or 3. It says something about not being available, and it rolls two blue dice with stars on them. You win in all three scenarios. The only time you don’t win is if you don’t roll your number, and Cletus doesn’t change your number to a winner. In this last case, you win a courtesy chip.
lol they’re all rigged…
I don’t know if I was lucky, but I seemed to win a lot more chips at the dice den than at the slots.
On a side note……I’m saving as many tokens as possible for act 2. Does this seem wise?
http://tstoaddicts.com/2016/03/03/casino-event-101-strategies-where-you-should-be-and-relaxing/
And it’s just how it worked for you. In a week it may be the opposite. The odds are the same on both…
i think they nerfed that 10 min ago cause cletus is not giving me anything, just after i got a small patch, no more blue dice no more swapping number. Just spend like 20 tokens and got 600 red chip max. going back to Moe.
Agree, Slyter. Similar experience. First time around I couldn’t lose, but then got only 400 with 20 chips.
I agree, after the patch much fewer chances to cheat at dice.
I just made level 2 crafting, I can’t craft anything because app closes when you go into the crafting section. I use an iPhone 6. Anyone else experiencing this glitch??
Try uninstalling and reinstalling TSTO if you have an EA/Origin account.
Ive never completed a full act in any event , i just play for the fun of it 🙂
I’m just trying 12 and had luck, today I made about 4k chips. You can calculate chances, but there are more factors as “blue dices” and “rewriting” the choosed number at the end of 3 chances.
I was up with the baby at 4:45 this morning and when I went back to sleep, I apparently dreamed that you recommended only betting on the lower numbers to get a bigger payout overall in the dice game.
I may be playing this game too much.
hahahahahaha it’s not a bad recommendation
Cletus has a two hour task at the dice den. “Work at the dice den”
My gamblers have been super stingy since yesterday. I went about 6 hours last night tapping on every one without getting a single casino chip. This morning too, I’ve probably tapped 15 of them and have gotten only 1 chip. And the keychains have become like hens teeth. Getting to level 2 is a tedious process.
All of a sudden Ive noticed a huge increase in coins and crafting resources now the Dice Den is in the game.
Keychains in previous 24 hours = 3
Keychains in last 5 hours = 19
After getting all of the prizes for this act, I’ve noticed that Moe’s slot machine is giving more crafting items than before, even with some of the bigger wins. But…I’ve noticed that the wandering gamblers have been a little less willing to drop coins. Trying to test it out and see if that’s true or just perceiving it that way. My son is still working on the Lucius, so I’m having him keep track of slot coins, and then I can compare.
I haven’t done a scientific study but it seems to me the key chains, coasters, and casino tokens appeared with much more frequency when the event started compared to now
To all of the people in this part of the comment thread…. I’d be willing to bet significant bucks that nothing’s changed — y’all are just experiencing the natural variations that can occur when you’re dealing with something that’s odds-based.
No one person here plays (or could play, even if you did nothing else all day) anything like nearly enough times to see the “true” odds at play. If suddenly things seem stingier or more generous in your game, it most likely doesn’t mean a thing, other than that that’s what happened to turn up odds-wise for you right now.
Unless EVERYONE was reporting the same thing (and they’re not…for each post that someone makes about it going one direction, someone else posts the opposite, if you read through the comments), I would be highly skeptical that EA has really made any changes in the payouts.
Do i have to at level 2 crafting to start getting Martini’s and tickets
level 2 for martinis, level 3 for tickets. But you can still get them prior to that via the VIP Club and daily challenges
Cant craft level 2 my app shuts down,when I go in to crafting. FYI I’m using iPhone 6
Try uninstalling and reinstalling TSTO
The only way it works is when you go in by the trophy to craft the quick link causes the shutdown. I did the delete & reload. I just found it only works this way without app closing after your suggestion, it sort of worked , thank you!😻
If the dice are fair, and that’s a big IF since I don’t know how to check the code in the files to see, the best payout is the 5 or the 9 given the probabilities of each roll.
# Prob pay expected value
2 2.78% 400 11.11111111
3 5.56% 300 16.66666667
4 8.33% 235 19.58333333
5 11.11% 200 22.22222222
6 13.89% 150 20.83333333
7 16.67% 110 18.33333333
8 13.89% 150 20.83333333
9 11.11% 200 22.22222222
10 8.33% 235 19.58333333
11 5.56% 300 16.66666667
12 2.78% 400 11.11111111
This is a bit off – since you get 3 rolls, your chances of winning are significantly higher than you listed here. I still found that 5 or 9 provided the best expected value, though.
If there were no “cheating”. Cheating makes the larger payouts more profitable. To factor this into calculation we however need the probability that you’ll be allowed to cheat.
Your probabilities for the rolls and the conclusion that given a fair game (ha – as if! Game is obviously tilted in our favor.), you should choose 9 or 5 is right, but the EVs are low. The expected value calculation should use the probability that you don’t roll a given number over three tries, not the probability that you do roll it on any given roll. Taking into account the three tries, and the fact that even if you lose, you get a courtesy chip that you can cash in for 10 chips (well, 10 for a 100 chips, same thing,) I get these expected values:
Roll Prob Win_Pay Lose_Pay EV
2 or 12 0.081 400 10 41.6
3 or 11 0.158 300 10 55.7
4 or 10 0.230 235 10 61.7
5 or 9 0.298 200 10 66.6
6 or 8 0.361 150 10 60.6
7 0.421 110 10 52.1
The dice game isn’t “fair”. It’s better than fair. You win most of the tine regardless of what number you choose. It’s just like Moe’s slot machine. Everyone’s a winner! 🙂
You can lose, actually. But every 10 loses you get 100 chips, which is basically still 10 chips every loss. So, yes, everyone’s a winner!
Yay just got to craft level 2.
Being sick and having surgery sucks, but hey, my game is great.
I’m at 42000 at the moment the gamblers are still only giving 10 red chips.
There’s probably no chance this time to complete all the act 1 sadly.
I’ll be playing cletus going for 2 every time I got quite a few wins there.
gamblers are supposed to only give 10 chips each.
Assuming the dice are legitimate (except for the “special” ones), your best expected return on a bet is for 5 or 9. Changes of throwing a 7 are 1 in 6; chances of throwing a 5 are 1 in 9. 200/9 > 110/6 (I’ve simplified the math. Trust me; holds true for 3 chances). Assuming the dice are “standard”. Is that a reasonable assumption?
I sent in my calculations earlier but they weren’t,t posted. They agree with you. On average 10 bets on 5 or 9 will return 600 chips, 4, 6, 8 or 10 return 540, 3 or 11 – 480, number 7 – 460, and numbers 1 or 12 – 320 chips. Moe’s slot game is the better bet.
It’s a good assumption but you haven’t taken into account that 1) the dice aren’t fair (or don’t seem to be for me) and 2) the difference in chip earnings (for example when I pick 2 I get 400, if I pick 10 and earn 225 but win twice as often, 10 is a better deal but if I only win 1.5 times compared to picking 2 it’s less overall chips).
No. The is the Simpson’s Tapped out. Everyone’s a winner.
Very important question! I am saving the chip we get when we lose. Will the red chippas turn into blue in round two or will they be lost? I have 500 worth of chippas. But I do not need them now as I still manage a round of bonuts daily. Please advise me if you know the answer. Thanks
they should
Red will become blue?
well green, then blue.
You’re saying our red chip total will carry over to act 2? They will turn into green chips?
No. Not at all. I’m saying…the red chips in the crafting for courtesy chips will turn into green chips. Gotta read the original comment lol. They asked if the chips you get when you lose are worth saving… “Joco | March 3, 2016 at 8:59 am | Reply | Edit
Very important question! I am saving the chip we get when we lose. Will the red chippas turn into blue in round two or will they be lost? I have 500 worth of chippas. But I do not need them now as I still manage a round of bonuts daily. Please advise me if you know the answer. Thanks”
See how what I say gets twisted around? Now someone will come back when Act 2 starts and say “well you said our red chips convert to green chips, but my counter is 0″… lol
That’s why I asked the question, I didn’t think you were saying that but it could have been misconstrued as that. Of course if you were saying that I would’ve done a happy dance.
I’ve run the math and the best #’s are 5 and 9, Expected Value = 59.5. 6 and 8 have EV = 54.2; 4 and 10, EV = 54; 3 and 11, EV = 47.3; 7, EV = 46.3; 2 and 12, EV = 32.4.
However, this assumes fair dice and no cheating. Without knowing the cheating probabilities, it’s impossible to calculate the Expected Value. Since we don’t know the probabilities associated with the slots either, it’s impossible to know which game has the highest EV. Maybe I should not over think it and just have fun.
Bon chance!
Come on, it’s simple but tedious. All things equal 5 and 9 ARE the best choices, I can’t imagine they rigged the dice rolling.
So, 100 pulls of the slot machine and 100 rolls of the dice (set of 3, really).
Add up the results. 100 repetitions should be reasonable to even things out.
However, I’M not going to do it!
🙂
It’s rigged. The odds are the same with dice as they are with the slots. It’s just another way…doesn’t matter what number you pick.
You really think Cletus would run a fair dice game? The funny thing is, Cletus is so stupid, he’s rigged it in your favor- not his. 😉
Hi guys, If They ever had. a childhood event where you could get characters like kid Homer, Young Grampa, Kid Marge etc, Would Kid Homer be a skin for homer, or a seperate character? Same thing for Kid Marge. I think that they should be separate characters. I also think that Young Grampa should be a skin though. Kid Marge and Kid Homer could have a kissing joint task. I mean, mystery brunette haired girl and Elvis Jagger Abdul Jabar. Hey, they could come with Homer’s Camp, and Camp Land-a-Man. Sorry for the ramble. Wait. This could be perfect for the summer event! It could be like a childhood summer camp fun with young Marge and Homer! Get to it EA!
I only played it a few times, but wasn’t impressed. I only got the cheating option once and it didn’t seem like the dice rolls corresponded to any true probability of rolling 2 six sided die. Maybe I just need to try it some more.
I had to go “off strip” for Cletus’s place. Needs more Christmas lights.
Heck, I be suprised it got ‘lecticity
Addendum…just played three more time and got trick dice twice and pick a different number for three big pay outs and two sets of crafting payouts
I find that the best way for this minigame is to always bet on either 2 or 12. I win 400 this way a lot more than with Moe’s and that’s without the cheats (which again happen even more and will let you win 400 no matter what). Definitely getting more chips playing this than Moe’s
Should you hoard the blue tickets you receive when you lose at the slot machine? For now all you can use them for is buying red tokens. Thanks.
They’re not “blue tickets”. They’re (purple) courtesy chips. If you’ve already received all of the act one prizes, then it behooves you to hold onto all of you courtesy chips until act 2.
I had absolutely no wins with the dice on 15 tokens! Only one crafting pay out. Noticed 12&3 came up a lot until I switched to those numbers then of course they didn’t come up! I did get a lot of courtesy chips though!
It really doesn’t matter much which number you choose. The game is rigged (mostly in your favor). I played the dice game about 10 times this morning, and won a lot of chips.
Oh no! I had the same experience and only 1 round of trick dice. I am finished with act 1 so and unlocked 2nd tier of crafting, things are getting pricey duos and I’m just not getting many key chains or coasters. Trying to just hoard at this point. May the odds be ever in your favor! 😀
I did’s the maths (Cletus speak).
Without the cheat, what number gives you the best payout (based on random dice rolls):
Roll Payout Combos Chance In 1000 Rolls Win
2 400 1 2.78% 28 11,200
3 300 2 5.56% 56 16,800
4 235 3 8.33% 83 19,505
5 200 4 11.11% 111 22,200
6 150 5 13.89% 139 20,850
7 110 6 16.67% 167 18,370
8 150 5 13.89% 139 20,850
9 200 4 11.11% 111 22,200
10 235 3 8.33% 83 19,505
11 300 2 5.56% 56 16,800
12 400 1 2.78% 28 11,200
Doesn’t line up well in comments, but your best numbers are 5 and 9.
Are you talking about proper mathematical probability because I don’t think that comes into it, the game will do what it’s programmed to do and based on what Moe’s slot machine does, we should be winning more than we would with real dice
🎲 🎲 🙂
The dice den definitely will make it easier to get courtesy chips for the Daily Challenges, since you are likely to lose more often if you choose 2 or 12. I spent all day yesterday trying to get 5 courtesy chips at Moe’s, but only earned 3. I “won” 2 courtesy chips easily this morning at Cletus’s.
You realize you get those when you Lose right? Probably not great strategy to make your choice based on where you get More courtesy chips. If your only suggesting this for people who have the “collect 5 courtesy chips” daily challenge I would keep in mind that there’s no time limit for daily challenges, and unless your 3 DC slots are full, little motivation to sacrifice to get it done quickly.
I unlocked Lucius this morning. Is it better to keep the game tokens till Part 2 will start or will there be a reset of the game tokens? I also unlocked level 2 for crafting.
Yeah, I’m not going to do maths on random rhythms.
Although I have fallen into Murphy’s Law my whole life. Driving, SlotZ, cards, The minute I make a move that’s when everything shifts and I would’ve been better off staying where I’d been. Oh well, what can go wrong will go wrong!😆
Are you equally bad at choosing check-out lines?
Yes. I’m always in the cue that suddenly stops. 😋
Not sure where to post this but I got lucius today and have 30 tokens left over should I spend these to upgrade my crafting which is 3 slots away from level 2 or should I save them for act 2?
Awesome, me too. The chips racks Bonus Donuts quickly. 🎉