Hey Howdy Hey Tappers!

Viva Las Springfield! Vegas has arrived in Springfield and nothing says Vegas like rigged games of chance! Cletus’ Dice Den is a place where you can experience first hand one of those rigged games of chance…as you try your luck in the TSTO’s dice game!

So what can you win at Celtus’ Dice Den? How do you win? How do you cheat? Let’s take a look at all those questions and more as we break down the details of Cletus’ Dice Den….

*You guys know the drill by now…we’ll start with the basics*

**How Do I Unlock Cletus’ Dice Den?**

Cletus’ Dice Den will unlock, for FREE, once you reach **The Old Man and the ‘Sino Pt. 11.** Cletus’ starts this off. After you’ve placed and built the den you’ll still need Cletus free to trigger **Dice with the Devil**. Once that starts you’ll be able to actually place Dice at the Den.

**How Do I Use Cletus’ Dice Den?**

To “gamble” at the den you’ll need Tokens. They look like this…

Once you have at least 1 Token you can use it at Cletus’…*Just like at Moe’s. *

**How Do I Earn Tokens?**

Tokens will randomly pop out of Gamblers as you tap them..

You can also earn Tokens when you complete tasks at Burns’ Casino…1 token/4hrs per character that has a task there.

Additionally you can earn Tokens by upping your VIP Card Level. And you can earn them via the Daily Challenges.

And of course you can buy them for donuts in the store…I DO NOT recommend buying them. You can earn Tokens pretty easily, DO NOT waste your donuts on them in the store.

**So What Happens Once I Have A Token? **

Well…you tap on Cletus’ Dice Den and it’ll bring up the Dice game…

First you must pick a number between 2 and 12. Once you’ve selected your number, tap on it and the game will start.

Tap on the can to roll the dice….

You’ll have 3 chances to match the number you picked.

**So How Do You Win?**

Simple…you have 3 rolls to match the number. Match the number you win. Fail to match it and you lose.

Simple right? 🙂

**What Can I Win?**

For Act 1…you can win Red Chips & Crafting Currency. Every throw is a winner, so even when you lose you’ll still win something.

Here are the chip payouts:

The payout is all based on the initial number you pick. The easier the number is to get, the smaller the chip payout.

You can also randomly earn crafting currency when you win (or lose). Occasionally you’ll see crafting currency popup as a prize in addition to the Chips…

The bonus crafting payout is random and doesn’t always happen. There’s no special trick to getting crafting currency to popup.

**What Happens When I Lose? **

If you lose at Cletus’ you’re still a winner! Sorta… If you lose you’ll win a courtesy chip.

During Act 1 you can trade courtesy chips in for chips via the crafting menu. 10 courtesy chips = 100 . (This payout will change to Act 2 and Act 3 currency…so you’ll earn 100 Act 2 currency for 10 courtesy chips when Act 2 hits, and 100 Act 3 currency for 10 courtesy chips)

When you lose you’ll also occasionally get a crafting payout, just like when you win.

**The Game Said Something About Cheating, How Do I Cheat?**

First, let me say this…cheating is random. There is nothing you can do to get it to popup. It’s completely random. So don’t think you can do something to cheat…you can’t. It’ll just popup from time to time.

Now..there are currently two ways to cheat at the dice. The first is pictured in the image above. You’ll get a popup that says to pick a different number..

When this happens, at least for me, it’ll change the number to 2 or 12….the highest payout:

*This method will only happen if you roll a 2 or a 12…from what I’ve experienced.*

The second cheat pops up every once in a while and tells you that Cletus is experiencing ‘Shine Blindness’.

This method allows you to use trick dice…and basically roll whatever your number is..sorta

Again…there’s nothing you can do to make the cheat trigger. It’s completely random and will popup in your game when you can.

And finally…

**Well It’s a Dice Game, So There Are Specific Odds…What Are Those Odds?**

So first…yes typical Dice Games do have specific odds. As in based on the number of possible combinations to roll a number..that’s what drives those odds. However, that’s with dice you can hold in your hand and throw. Not computerized dice games.

Cletus’ Dice Den is computerized. The odds don’t really work with traditional thinking..it’s a game. Just have fun with it…since it’s rigged in your favor.

Now that being said an Addicts reader Clemens sent us an email this morning, and they broke down the odds for those who want to know. Keep in mind this is Clemens’ take on the odds. This is not based on anything from the game coding, so don’t freak out about it. This is really just for those that like to figure this kind of stuff out. (And I hate for Clemens’ hard work to go to waste…)

*Here is a short look at the mathematics behind Cletus’ Dice Game:*

*TL;DR*

*Considering probabilities and payout you get most chips for your tokens if you go with the 5 or the 9.*

*First take a look at the number of possible combinations:*

*To get 2 or 12: 1 combination*

*To get 3 or 11: 2 combinations*

*To get 4 or 10: 3 combinations*

*To get 5 or 9: 4 combinations*

*To get 6 or 8: 5 combinations*

*To get 7: 6 combinations*

*There is a total of 36 possible combinations and the probability for one specific pair of dice is the number of combinations for this sum divided by the total number of combinations (36).*

*Now we get the chance to roll the dice three times which leaves us with the following probabilities to get a sum in one of the three attempts:*

*To get 2 or 12: 8.1%*

*To get 3 or 11: 14.76%*

*To get 4 or 10: 22.97%*

*To get 5 or 9: 29.77%*

*To get 6 or 8: 36.14%*

*To get 7: 42.13%*

*As you can see you are most likely to win if you pick the seven. But does that mean you should always pick seven? No!*

*As you win more chips if the probability of success is smaller the game changes. To see which number has the highest amount of chips per token spent we multiply probability with the number of chips you can win. Which leaves us with the following:*

*Picking 2 or 12 you earn an average of 32.42 chips per token spent.*

*Picking 3 or 11: 44.28 chips*

*Picking 4 or 10: 53.54 chips*

*Picking 5 or 9: 59.54 chips*

*Picking 6 or 8: 54.32 chips*

*Picking 7: 46.34 chips*

*As you can see it is neither the best idea to go for the highest amount of chips at 2 or 12 nor to go for the highest win rate at the 7. Math tells you to go for the 5 or 9 instead, as you will win 29.77% of the games and still get 200 chips per win.*

*All of that is without considering cheating. As cheating is a random process I cannot include it in my calculations. It will only increase your gain in total but not the probability of the single numbers so it wouldn’t matter anyways. (To be precise the one cheat does not make sense in comparison with picking the two so picking two has an even lower gain in comparison.)*

*As to whether to play Cletus’ or Moe’s game maths cannot recommend either as winning at Moe’s is completely random. To me it feels like I gain more playing at Cletus though. (Picking 5 and 9 of course)*

Now my personal take on it? It’s all random. The odds are no better at Cletus’ than they are at Moe’s. So play whichever you like…and don’t worry about the odds. Pick a number that you like, because you like it 🙂

And there you have it…the details on Cletus’ Dice Den!

What are your thoughts on the Dice Den? Having success with the dice? Or do you prefer the slots? Enjoying the “winning”? Sound off in the comments below, you know we love hearing from you!

For me I watch for a pattern. I usually start with 3 and then 10, and it usually lands on it and once establish a 4 pattern number like 3,10,4,12 i just cycle it and I tend to win quite often…either that or I have Jedi Mind Sh** 😛 jk

Same observation as Shertys here.

TL;DR:

Neither the slots nor the dice are coded for a fair game. The “randomness” isn’t random. IMHO the game rolls on what you won, then decides on what to display. First crude test suggests equal payout over (sufficiently long) time regardless of which game you play and regardless of how you play the dice game.

Long version:

Neither the dice nor the slots were coded for realistic behaviour.

When you stick with any “lucky number” on the dice for a while, you will see that the series of 3 dice rolls repeat. For an egregious example, when your “lucky number” is 6, you will often see a losing series of 8-8-4. I’m yet to see _any other_ losing series starting with 8 when 6 is chosen as “lucky”. I’m also yet to see this series occur when 7 is chosen as “lucky”.

Switch your lucky number, and the series which you can roll will also switch. Thus calculating the EV, as Clemens did, doesn’t apply. To get a rough idea on whatever Cletus’ dice are coded to do, we’d need to document let’s say 100 attempts (or 1000 attempts to get better signal-to-noise) on each lucky number and note the total payout and all the series rolled (including cheating rounds and how often the series were cut short by winning). Apparently, coding for 2 fair and independant dice and “sum matches lucky number” was more difficult than hard-coding never-changing triplets of sums with their respective chances and _then_ coding them to depend on the “lucky number” of the player’s choice _and then_ coding to make the game vary the dice for the hard-coded sum. When the game rolls two losing 8-8-4 series on “lucky number” 6 in a row (and such a sequence of 6 rolls is highly improbable), the dice for the 8 will be 6+2, 5+3 and 4+4 in more or less random order. IMHO it seems that the game first decides win/lose, then decides which winning or losing series to display and then decides which die faces to show for the sums hard-coded in the series.

In the same vein, when playing slots, the match-ups of e.g. Barney-Barney-beer, Barney-beer-Barney and beer-Barney-Barney should happen with the same frequency. They don’t. Apparently coding for 3 independant wheels and a “matching 2 or matching 3” control was more difficult than hard-coding never-changing triplets of symbols with their respective values.

For my curiosity, I used 60 tokens on 20 slots, 20 dice on 7 and 20 dice on 6. Considering cheating events (reels stuck / Barney sketch / trick dice / number switch), it seems to pay 1900-2000 chips regardless of how you use the tokens.

I still haven’t got the dice den and I donf know why, anyone know??!!?

It can depend on your level in the game, I just got Marge to my Springfield which triggered the quests leading up to the dice game becoming available. Not sure if this applies to you, just pointing it out as until today I was wondering the same thing.

I’m also finding significant deviation from the true odds posted above and my results. I win with 2, 11, and 12 much more often than I should, and see the middle numbers (which I have not bet on so far) displayed in unusually low frequency. It seems like the coding approach may be towards an average payout rather than truly random betting.

Has anyone else stopped getting any crafting currency from the dice or slots games? Ever since the march 8 update, the games have just been turning up tokens, no horseshoes, coasters or martinis. I can still get them by tapping on gamblers, but not from the games. I’ve tried about 15 times over the past two days, but nothing. Android, if it makes a difference.

Do i have to play the dice game for anything special? I don’t really like it so I have only been playing the slots

Nope play the slots 🙂

On an iPhone 6 I’ve been playing a lot of dice, and the randomness is not very random. Patterns that repeatedly show up are:

5-5-12

4-4-11

3-3-10

2-4-6

6-8-10

Over and over, I rarely see a 7 even though in real dice that should be most common! It’s really not very random at all. I’m not sure how the programming was done but it’s such a pattern it’s not even close random. Like they hard coded the prng seed with the same value so it’s giving the same random numbers each time. I’ve been playing mostly 3s 12s and 2s with pretty good results.

is anyone elses dice game manipulated?

every time i take the 2 as my number it rolls 4,4 and 11. every time!

same for other numbers. every time the same numbers come up and winning became impossible.

weird.

I was bored so I decided to run the numbers on 126 games of dice.

I noticed that the cheat games would always have the same sting of numbers, and the set of numbers NEVER occurred outside of a cheat game. Out of my 128 games 6 of them were cheat games, so I had 122 games with usable data.

If you are only worried about how often a number comes up here are the results of 352 individual rolls (remember not all games have 3 rolls)

1 0 0.00%

2 19 5.40%

3 59 16.76%

4 48 13.64%

5 62 17.61%

6 37 10.51%

7 9 2.56%

8 39 11.08%

9 8 2.27%

10 18 5.11%

11 8 2.27%

12 45 12.78%

These numbers do not mean much when you think about it. As long as a number occurs one time in a set of 3 rolls it is a good number. I decided to filter out the data to find how often a roll contained a number. I made sure that I only counted a roll one time, even if it had a number show up more than once.

2 13 10.66%

3 43 35.25%

4 39 31.97%

5 39 31.97%

6 34 27.87%

7 9 7.38%

8 38 31.15%

9 5 4.10%

10 17 13.93%

11 7 5.74%

12 42 34.43%

I feel confident that a sample size of 122 games is enough to give me a pretty good idea of the odds. From these odds I conclude that 3 is the number that will give you the best odds of winning. 12 is very close behind 3. Knowing that 12 pays out more money than 3 I think that going forward I will only play 12.

Obviously 122 games is a ridiculously small sample for a game that’s being played by millions worldwide. I haven’t kept count, but I can tell you that 2 and 11 are some of the numbers I roll more often, which doesn’t match your conclusion at all.

You have lies, big lies and statistics 😛

The rolls are not random. The numbers presented depend on what you chose. For example, chosing 10 will often lead to the results 12-12-8 or 11-2-4.

Using these results, you would come to think playing for the 12 would be the smart move, but it isn’t.

If you would want to find out more about your chances to win, you would have to play every number several times and compare the win / lose ratio.

Forget about the displayed dice, they are just fake.

I win 9/10 times in Moe’s but just around 2/10 in Cletu’s I choose random numbers tho’

The probabilities are quite correct in a true random game with two random. This is anything but random.

I have been recording all the outcomes and there are a limited number of sequences and they repeat over and over.

In about 100 plays I have seen the following:

10 12 5

7 7 3

6 6 2

6 8 10

6 2 2

8 8 4

5 3 4

4 10 6

3 5 ?

7 6 ?

12 7 5

12 8 6

9 6 ?

2 6 ?

7 9 11

Just over half these combos have a 6 in them, there are some I haven’t seen the whole combo, I’ ve been sticking to 6 since I tumbled to it. Pays out 150 green coins and the drop rate of crafting goodies seems reasonable.

I would like to know how or when do we earn the wine glasses?

They’re supposed to be earned just like coasters and keychains once you reach Level 2 of crafting. However, they don’t seem to be falling. So I’m thinking once Act 2 starts they’ll fall if you’re Level 2

Yeah, I’m regretting wasting the coins to get to level two after I had the top guy. Would have rather saved them for tomorrow.

Won’t repeat the mistake at the end of act 2.

Maybe they are parachuted in, glass is so fragile 😄

Alissa prefers Craps (Dice) vs Machine (Slots)

I tend to be the opposite (lol – blame it on how Las Vegas residents are rewarded points with a players card)

Actually? My fav game is Roulette (I win every time using simple strategies passed on to me, I also quit while I’m ahead – which is what I think Tappers should do if they’re not winning enough (lol) 😉

I think roulette has one of the worst odds, but I guess if you’re playing for fun, rather than to win, then that doesn’t really matter.

(And, yes – I’m also tend to walk away when/if I’m significantly ahead.)

This is a “rigged” game. The dice do not follow the natural rules of probability for dice. The results of each throw depend on the number you pick. It would take a while to work out the actual statistics of the game and the expected payout for each number. So you should just pick any number and have fun.

To illustrate this, I did a simple experiment.

I used 50 coins, picking 12 each time.

The numbers 2,4,6 came up 21 times.

The numbers 3,3,10 came up 17 times.

The number 12 came up 10 times, with the following throws

12,-,- (3 times)

2,12,-

3,8,12

5,8,12

4,12,

8,6,12

9,12,-

9,12,-

I had one “fix” cheat, where the numbers were 2,9,2

I had one blue dice cheat.

Numbers which never came up were 7, 11.

I won a total of 400*12+(50-12)*10 = 5180 tokens.

I then used 50 coins, picking 2 each time.

The numbers 3,5,7 came up 24 times.

The numbers 4,4,11 came up 20 times.

(Note these numbers are exactly those for the experiment with picking the number 12, but with 1 added to each throw, e,g. 2,4,6 -> 3,5,7)

The number 2 came up 4 times, with the following throws

2,-,- (2 times)

5,2,-

10,2,-

I had one “fix” cheat, where the numbers were 3,8,12

I had one blue dice cheat.

Numbers which never came up were 6, 9.

I won a total of 2840 tokens.

That would be true if the dice were all random rolls. I’ve outwon my daughter’s game going max roll it chips till she switched to 3s and it’s much closer now. After 100 or so rolls you can usually determine your outcome by the first roll. 3-5-7 for example is the most common anecdotally followed by 4-4-11 in my game.

Good job!

There is only one typo. The probability of 3 or 11 is 15.76% instead of 14.76% 😉 Nevertheless, this does not change the recommendation to go for 5 or 9.

All I know is that the probability of fun is 100% 🙂

Good job!

There seems to be only a typo with 3 or 11: The probability is 15.76% instead of 14.76%. 😉 Does not change anything on the recommendation side to go for 5 or 9.

I feel I do better at Moe’s but I certainly don’t have any statistical data and did not apply the consitent 5 or 9 logic above. I do hit a lot of 3x Barneys but I’m way more concerned with crafting currency. Thanks for running the numbers!

I don’t think those averages are legit within the game. I’ve started tracking my average winning but don’t have enough data yet to really come to any conclusions, however I can tell you with certainty that 7 comes up far more often than 45%. Think closer to 90%. That means you’re getting ~95 chips/roll if you pick 7 every time (not counting the occasional cheat). I’d be curious to try 5 or 9 in the game to gather some data, but unfortunately I’d never get enough tokens to test all the possibilities. I can say that from my limited data, picking 7 every time is definitely better than playing at moes (which only averages ~80 chips/spin from what I can tell so far)

so, i’ve gathered some more data and i can say with confidence that playing Cletus’ game and picking 7 every time is definitely better than playing Moes (average winnings of 104.8 chips/roll vs 92.2 chips/spin). i’ve starting picking 5 at Cletus’ and tracking how much that wins. i don’t have as much data as the other two, but so far it appears to win about the same amount as picking 7 (104.0 chips/roll so far).

so it may not matter what number you pick at Cletus’, but Cletus > Moes

Where did you gather more data? Just from your own game play? No single player plays *nearly* enough times to tease out the “truth” about the odds just by observing his/her own results. Someone else posted a comment about spending 100 coins at Moe’s and 100 at Cletus’ and coming away with slightly more chips from Moe’s and a lot more crafting currency (not including courtesy cards, which Cletus beat more for by a long shot (but which aren’t really worth all that much)).

I enjoy Moe’s much better and feel like I tend to do way better there, so that’s where I play 95% of the time. Almost every time I decide to spend a couple of chips over with Cletus, I end up feeling disappointed and uneasy (“darn – should have picked the other number I was thinking about picking”). I prefer to let the game take the “responsibility” for winning or losing (which is one reason I always play a “quick pick” with lottery numbers, too).