Thank Grog Its Firday!
I suppose there is some mild comfort and relief from the fact that EA dropped “something to do,” on players stuck at home with “nothing to do.” And in light of the way things are going, and the way things are being mandated at every level of government, “Nothing to Do” is going to very much be part of everyday lives for a bit…if not a long bit.
I was actually relieved myself to see something happen in our games. And although I am rational enough to know that this Mini-update was programmed weeks ago, before the real crazy started, somebody had to make sure it got loaded to the servers, and triggered.
So…maybe Bob, the part-time EA programmer has had to give up his Pizza Delivery job during the shut-down in California, or he is actually like many of us, able to work from home.
Whatever the case…THANKS BOB (and EA). We can use some distraction from our boredom. Right?
If I am honest, I have to admit that I may in fact be on the “Other Side” as the lines are being drawn over the whole, “THIS IS THE END OF THE WORLD- vs- CALM THE FREAK DOWN! WE’RE OVER-REACTING!!”
And the lines are not more obvious than on Social Media…
What is weirdly ironic to me, is that the ‘CrankyOldGuy” seems to be the least freaked out of anyone in the crowd. I had the audacity to post actual figures regarding the comparison between Covid-19 and the far more common (and more deadly) Influenza. And, people freaked out.
You Can Read My Entry on my CrankyOldGuy.com post here.
I followed this post, with a post on FB about the fact that the media (which apparently includes every numbskull with a FB or Instagram account), continues to pump the Death Toll, and the Increasingly Horrible News from Italy, without balancing it with the HIGH NUMBER OF CASES OF RECOVERY!
First. Let me state from the top…I am not being callous about the mess in Italy, or any other place in the world. Our hopes and prayers go out to those in Italy (including our friend Gio) who are dealing with insanely high numbers compared to the rest of the world. The fact is, if you are IN IT…then it is obviously far more serious to you than those who have not been infected.
So…why am I remaining calm, and perhaps overly pragmatic?Because we are likely dealing with our own personal infection in our family.
As many of you know, my daughter Katie, works for CBS News in New York. She, along with a number of staff at the news center in NYC, came down with symptoms late last week, and were told to “self isolate” at home. Unfortunately, the symptoms also popped up with Jake, our “almost two-year-old” grandson, and then, when he returned from a trip, to our son-in-law. To further mitigate this as “bad news,” my youngest daughter and her fiance, were visiting at the time, and flew back to Portland, only to be told that because of contact with Katie, they needed to “self-quarantine” as well. And…make to things even worse, Josh, my daughter’s housemate/boyfriend is also an ER nurse, at the VA hospital that had Oregon’s first Covid-19 death.
So…yes…if anyone should be freaking out right now…and perhaps has the right…It is me.
But, I’m not.
While it is relatively early on in this overall battle to understand and eradicate this extremely virulent form of the flu (and yes…I continue to call it a very bad flu with extra options), I simply prefer to be comforted by the statistics.
I rely on a couple of web sites for the “The Real Numbers.” I hate numbers being passed around by news organizations, or social media pinheads (who are often the same people). I want the HARD FACTS.
If you want JUST THE FACTS… Go to http://www.cdc.gov
It is comforting, because the government says right on the front page…
CDC is responding to the novel coronavirus outbreak.
Wait…didn’t anyone at the CDC think to change the headline to 2020??? Are they really on it?? hmm…maybe not so much.
Unfortunately, for many of us “in the breech” of this cannon of information and viral infection, the response for critical testing kits, to help target actual outbreaks has been, and continues to be abysmal.
Case in point… Katie, got tested last Monday…and as of today, still does not have test results, and very most likely has Covid-19. However, they did NOT test Jake or Ryan…because there are no tests in their local facilities. Katie got fast-tracked, because she was in contact with a “known positive” at CBS. But getting tested, and getting results in a timely fashion, are apparently completely different things. Unless you are an NBA star, or a member of Congress… But, I digress.
Add to this, my other daughter, who works for an international eyeware company and has been all over the globe, including Italy, had all of the symptoms of Covid-19. She lives near the hotbed of outbreaks in California. She had a bad cough, high fever near 104 degrees for 5 days, aches, pains, difficulty breathing. When she freaked out two weeks ago, and called her PCP, the doctors just told her to stay home...because they didn’t have any kits available to test her.
So… WHY AM I STILL RELAXED????
Because BOTH daughters exhibited “flu-like symptoms” and are on the mend. Jake had an ear infection…but is almost “back to normal” after a week, and is helping his Dad “work from home.”
But like I said, I am a “stats guy.” I take comfort in real information, as well as making plans that actual alleviate fear.
My other favorite site, is https://data.vcstar.com/coronavirus
It is nothing but information and data, pulled from around the world, that is kept up to date…with maps and data about the most important factors with Covid-19: Where? How Many? Deaths? Recoveries?
At first glance at the world map, things look super, super, terrifying.
But if you zoom into your own state (in my case, Oregon), things don’t look as terrifying.
But if you scroll down below the map, you will also see the raw stats…and they ALSO GIVE ME COMFORT!
These are from today…just a few minutes ago on the morning of March 20th.
It is clear that Italy is an anomaly statistically. And people are fearful that New York and other Hot Spots will resemble the “Italian Model” within two weeks. I am going to choose to believe that it will be more like China, or Korea, or even Germany.
Yes…none of this is good. But, even this early on, LOOK AT THE NUMBERS OF THOSE WHO HAVE RECOVERED, compared to those who have died. I am going to throw my hat in the ring of the “Recovered,” or the even greater number who simply aren’t infected at all.
And NO…I AM NOT RECOMMENDING THAT YOU IGNORE COMMON SENSE.
You still need to wash your hands…practice social distancing (unless you are standing in line at the grocery store waiting to pay for the one roll of toilet paper left on the shelves). And use common sense when around even small groups of people…no hugs, kisses, or other forms of congenial contact.
How am I going to deal with this mess today and in the near future?
- I am still going to help deliver Emergency Food Boxes with my Rotary Club this afternoon.
- I am still going to help my wife deliver food to shut-in kids from her school, and help her develop online lessons and counseling.
- I am developing a web site to connect local businesses who need support, with social service agencies who can provide services to the public and the emerging and growing list of people who will be without income, benefits, and perhaps shelter in the coming weeks and months.
- I am going to play golf…because the closest group of people is more than 200 yards away from me…and I need something that makes me feel normal, during this very un-normal time.
And…I’m going to TAP…In REAL TIME (without rushing), Because Bob and the good folks at EA gave us a little gift. And while the REAL MLB Season has been postponed, until Mid-to-Late May, TSTO has given us some “Short Season Sizzle” with the Isotopes Opener…
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SILVER LINING…in light of all of the storm clouds surrounding sports…at least for TSTO Players and EA.
Yes…we in Oregon are REALLY UPSET about the cancellation of March Madness. Both the Lady Ducks and Men Ducks from University of Oregon, were going to play. And seeing the ladies, with a player who is arguably the best all-around basketball player in the country, Sabrina Ionesco, have to go through the anguish of losing her mentor and friend, Kobe Bryant, and then lose her chance play for the championship, and have to settle for a final season rating of #2, is heartbreaking.
People without their sports, are losing their Sh#T! with so much of who they are, invested in the teams they support. But, here’s the “silver lining,” Sports freaks are going to need an outlet. And watching re-runs of March Madness, MLB, and Golf just aren’t going to cut it. They are going to turn to PLAYING their favorite sports virtually. And who is the Number One Sports Game Designer in the World? Arguably…EA.
My guess…is that Bob just got brought on full time again…and that TSTO, with all of the shut-ins now looking for entertainment, may become relevant once again.
Man. I really am turning into a “Half Glass Full” kinda guy… The BLISS-NINNY VIRUS IS IN ME!!!
OK… that’s all from here.
One of the reasons for stressing the “negative” numbers is to get people to respond to calls for social distancing and other measures. In hindsight, it’s unfortunate that the media kept saying that it wasn’t really a problem for people who weren’t old or immunity- compromised, because a) it led to many young people completely disregarding the requests for behavioral change (like those Spring Breakers and “I’m not going to let this stop me from partying” people) and b) young healthy people are now being hospitalized in significant numbers. So, if it takes focusing on the risk more to change behavior (which is critical to flattening the curve and protecting our health care system from catastrophic overload), then it’s the way to go.
This pandemic can’t be compared to flu, because there is no vaccine (and none coming for a while) and no common immunity. By all reckoning, even from the White House, this thing is going to get worse, probably much wise, before it gets better. (Just look at the rate the numbers have been going up…while total numbers are still not all that high, the rate at which they’re increasing is sobering. Think of that old story about the man who asked the ruler to pay him in grains of rice, starting with one grain and doubling the amount each day.)
That said, I still agree that abject panic is not helpful….but neither is minimizing the situation. We all need to take this very seriously, follow all of the official guidelines for the country and our own geographic areas, and then keep calm and carry on as best as possible.
Sorry… should also have said… I hope your family is well on the road to recovery and that the world comes out of this virus without too much more damage and hopefully a better place
So far…everyone is doing well. A bit nervous about my Daughter’s boyfriend/hosemate…as he is an ER nurse at the VA, and is working the “triage tent.” So…likely gonna get it, as they are already running short on PPG. But, I have to believe the odds are still on his side.
So sports… here in Australia, we still have NRL (rugby league) and AFL (Australian football) and maybe soccer (real football). Not completely sure about soccer being played as I don’t follow it.
I understand a few Americans are starting to watch our games due to lack of anything else.
I’m a Parramatta Eels fan, so I suggest going for them 😉 (Tennessee Titans fans in NFL).
Thanks for sharing Patric. I feel the same way you do. Please let us know if your family needs anything. Sending warm wishes for a speedy recovery for all.
We had warm weather yesterday and so everybody was out walking…but keeping a safe distance. It felt like spring and it gave us all hope. I made the rounds with our elderly neighbors and my father. Everyone was doing fine.
I’m going to spend the day making cavatelli….Alissa can tell you about it if you don’t already know!
While full-on panicking can be counterproductive, a little panic can be a good thing….it’s the difference between how things are going in Italy, where folks did not take this seriously until things starting getting really bad, because, well, you know…personal liberty and all that, and South Korea, where they acted swiftly and seriously and kept the worst of it at bay.
The recovery statistics are going to decline markedly if the hospital system gets more overloaded (as is already starting to happen in some places, like NYC) and there’s not enough staff and equipment to handle it. I pray that your daughter and her family in NYC have a mild enough case that they don’t end up requiring hospitalization, as many people, even young people (they’re now finding) have.
The problem with “not panicking” is that it gives people the sense that this is really no big deal (especially younger people, who tend to be more impulsive and tend to feel more invincible) and then they don’t practice the very measures you are supporting (have you seen those idiots on spring break, or elsewhere, who say that they’re not gonna let this thing stop them from partying?)
I’m pretty sure I heard that one of the states under “stay at home” restrictions did close down liquor stores, but I don’t remember which one. As for marijuana dispensaries, I can tell you that, while it hasn’t been a state-mandated move in Massachusetts (yet), my dispensary has temporarily shut down for “adult use” sales, but has remained open for its medical patients (thank goodness), for the same reason that pharmacies remain open.
I’m not panicking, but I am very concerned, especially for my three elderly parents who all live in NYC (and one of whom already has respiratory issues).
After staying home for almost two weeks (I was already working from home full-time before this), with the exception of a walk around the block the other day, I did venture out yesterday to go to the doctor (for something that couldn’t be handled via telemedicine, unfortunately), and to run a couple of other errands, including a (mostly unfruitful) trip to the grocery store. (Why is there no chicken to be had anywhere??? Plenty of pork, though….) I wiped down the cart with the sanitizing wipes and wore disposable gloves, because, well, why not? I’ve never been a germaphobe- those cart wipes were there before all of this and I never used them…always believed that being overly sanitary can keep you from building up resistance…but this is a very different situation.
At any rate, just keep in mind that, according to the statistical models, things are going to get worse before they get better. Also, keep in mind that recovery rates include people who are left with permanent damage. And, while more people die from influenza (so far), at least those of us who want to try to avoid that can get a flu shot (as I always have). With this thing, the only protection we have is to stay hypervigilant.
Thank you for your volunteer work….helping others is a mitzvah and a good way to channel one’s anxieties (which is why I signed up to volunteer with a telephone outreach program one of our local state representatives is setting up and am planning to donate a portion of any government check my household does end up receiving related to this (if we qualify for one) to our local food bank.
There is a HUGE difference between pragmatic concern…with actionable strategy, and going into anxiety addled immobility.
I’m gravely concerned that rational thought has been destroyed by those who wish to think of the. Worst case scenarios. Italy……..is NOT the normal for what is happening…ANYWHERE..except Italy.
But…yes…we have to do what we can to solve the problem with the best use of common sense.
I think the panic is a phase we have to get through in order to be ready to take action. Don’t think too harshly of the people who are panicking a bit, because sometimes it’s the first step to protecting yourself.
Many have gotten over the initial panic, and are now calmly and rationally waiting out the virus at home. I live in CA, which is under stay at home orders, and people here are calm. We’re just doing our part to ease the burden on hospitals. Most of us will get through this just fine. The stores are near empty, but that is a temporary issue.
We should all take care of each other during these troubled times and have a little grace for those that are still coming to grips with this crisis.
Well said, Fantasia! And I’d go one step further and say that, even under better circumstances, being kind to one another is almost always the better choice. That didn’t mean everyone has to agree about everything, but it costs little extra to disagree without being disagreeable. 🙂
“Disagree without being disagreeable?”
So now…you want me to be TemperatePoliteOldGuy? Sorry…I already have the trademark and domain name for CrankyOldGuy.
Agreed…as long as the “panic part” doesn’t also lead to mayhem, hoarding, and the breakdown of community.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. I think some people’s idea of the worst has been turned up to 11.
Please do note that the instances of infection are growing at an exponential rate. Some of that is due to better identification of the virus, so the numbers in the US may appear to quadruple over a week, but they may have in fact only doubled or tripled.
The benefits of social distancing will take a while to be realized. That is due to the incubation period. We are still learning about the incubation period, but it is believed to be between 5 and 14 days (for some it may even be longer). That means that if someone went into “isolation” (note the quotes), they may have already contracted the disease but its affects will not be seen for that incubation period. This is why many schools, and other places are suggesting a 2 to 3 week shut down.
1 see the 300 sprinkle whale is back in the vault. Even with the 75 sprinkle-back it’s still a price gouge!. You could buy 4 Knightboats at full whack for only 150 and end up with more % (8 vs 7).
That whale annoys me more than not seeing TP on the shelves for three weeks.
Never ever never ever buy an item that costs more than 150 donuts….if it is in the Mystery Box. With that 150 donuts in the Mystery Box, the user, at worst, would have to spend 150 donuts to purchase the whale, Barney, or whatever other over-priced item is for sale.
The whale is just a status symbol.
Of course the three eyed whale is totally cool, alas, I can only purchase one of those.
Although this game has all the importance of a pimple on a termite’s butt (during normal times, let alone now) it would nice if EA could FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY, ONCE AND FOR ALL fix the damn Bart Screen of Death! It pops up before the splash screen, then at least twice again after you finally get the splash screen, and at least every 5 minutes thereafter. Sometimes the whole app just crashes even without the Bart screen. I knew when they fixed it last time that it was just a temporary patch, not because I am a programmer, but because I have so little faith in EA. If this game is to be at all successful in taking my mind off of the Pandemic, it can’t crash constantly, making my stress and frustration grow. I can’t be the only one who has this problem. Come on EA! Get your 💩 together!
That is awesome that you did that! Big kudos. The main point of my post was that EVERYONE NEEDS TO PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCE.I understand that there is a recovery rate.I am in an essential workforce and am potentially exposed constantly (24/7) and do not want to infect my family everyday when I come home (usually for maybe only an hour).Not being dramatic but this is serious and people need to realize it. RIGHT NOW!
Thanks for whatever it is that you do Lil. I am also in Toronto, and when the city stops writing parking tickets, and all levels of government announce that they will defer your taxes for 3 months, you know this is serious.
I have done a tremendous amount of research on this subject, using reputable sources. I could give you lots of statistics, but a few are top of mind. Yes, the recovery rate is huge, but a lot of us can’t rely on that. I am “only” 57 (meaning I’m not 80), and I’m generally in pretty good health, but I’m also an insulin-dependent diabetic, and diabetes is one of the contributing factors that leads to an “unfavourable outcome” if I should become infected. Gotta love that lingo. So what are my chances? Who the hell knows? One thing in my favour is that I have never smoked, and this is a respiratory virus after all. One of the reasons that the death rate in China and Iran has been relatively high, is that a third of Chinese men, and a quarter of Iranian men smoke. The rate for women in both countries is about 2%. Some people who get infected show no symptoms. At all. So they go about blissfully ignorant, and infecting others, because even though they are asymptomatic, they are still highly contagious. This is why health authorities think the infection rate is actually quite a bit higher than we think (because we don’t have nearly enough test kits to find out) and why it is so important to isolate ourselves. If we do get sick, and we are sick enough to need hospitalization, the chances are good that we will need a respirator. Assuming one is available, if you need a respirator because of COVID-19, at that point your chance of survival is 50%. Let that sink in. Another cold, hard statistic is that, in spite of constantly hearing that only those over 80 are dying, 40% of those who die from the virus are 55 and under. Including those in their 20s and 30s. We used to be told that children didn’t get this; now we know they do. Babies too. And there is even a genetic component to this awful disease; it’s called a Cytokine Storm, and it is a deadly overreaction of the immune system. Who among us knows if we have the gene in question? I certainly don’t know. These are all genuine, verifiable facts. Feel free to check them for yourself.
So I am not panicking, but I am worried, especially when I see the numbers go up every day. This virus has a geometrical progression, and without mediation (such as isolation/self-quarantine) the number of patients will double at least every 5-7 days. I don’t know if I will get this virus. I don’t know if I will survive it if I do. I wish you all the best of luck.
To put this into perspective. We in Canada have closed BARS and breweries are making hand sanitizer for free! If there is any indication how serious this is I think this is the one to pay attention to. Everyone can help protect everyone else!Stop ignoring things and think you are invincible. Do you want to bring things home to your family and be the cause? THINK!!
Today, a dedicated number of Eugene Southtowne Rotarians practiced “social separation” while supporting our community. Today, we assembled and distributed more than forty food boxes for needy families associated with our Head Start program.
As a bonus, I delivered a box to one of the pre-K kids I read and sing to each month, and was met with a joyous exclamation of “TEACHER!!” And a huge hug.
Sometimes the rewards we receive for our work are simply priceless. Social separation? I’ll take my chances…
Good job Patric, 👍😁
If the media covered the flu epidemic we have every year and had a daily death count we would all be in isolation and panicked buying years ago
“Wait…didn’t anyone at the CDC think to change the headline to 2020??? Are they really on it?? hmm…maybe not so much.”
Actually, they’re not wrong! It’s named Coronavirus Disease 19 because it was officially named/discovered right at the end of 2019. If they’d waited a day longer… well, beside everything else that could have happened, it’d be COVID-20.
(also, go Sabrina! My team has the #1 pick, and assuming the world doesn’t end and the draft goes on, I’ll be cheering for her in New York! She’s just SO GOOD.)
But I think the reason people are panicking are the unknown unknowns of the situation; you can have it and not know you have it, or you can have it and think it’s just a mild cold, and then you can give it to the next person and they end up in the hospital. It’s a non-consensual game of Russian Roulette.
Apparently researchers in Melbourne have figured out a possibly confirmed cure using a combination of anti Malaria and anti HIV drugs that is seeming to work well. (just got bored and reading the news because I am in isolation because I live with someone that just came back from overseas)
John, the antimalarial drug in question is chloroquine. It is a nasty drug that has a long list of possible side effects, including psychosis and blindness. It is also easy to overdose on, resulting in death. The Chinese only used it for a month, before issuing warnings about it, and largely discontinuing its use. We need to keep looking.
That’s interesting on the Chinese aspect. Im only aware of the small 100% cure rate study out of France (6 out of 6).
My understanding is that South Korea and China have been incorporating it into their treatments now. And Belgium is using it on hospitalized patients.
Every drug has side effects, even over the counter headache medicines can cause…headaches.
I read some interesting articles on the 1918-1919 Spanish flu.
They death rates for that were astronomical compared to what we are seeing today. Nearly 20% of people who contracted it, died from it.
That was an unusual time, it was near the end of WWI, a lot of people were Malnourished due to rationing and the war effort. Also, people were gathered in close quarters in Europe for the war. Soldiers going home, took the big with them. Not to mention people not knowing what we know today.
The influenza came in three waves, the spring and then fall of 1918, and then the winter of 1919.
Some towns instituted a social distancing type of practice, these towns faired much better than those that didn’t.
Nonetheless, keep safe, practice good hygiene and help out others if you can. It is likely we will go into a recession because of this. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
I like stats as well and have seen these sites, pity the media forgets the recovery stats might help with the panickers, UK on shut down, schools, pubs, nightclubs, cinemas ect, isolation the key, apart from the supermarkets were hundreds of people queue to empty the shelves disgraceful, disgusting people, went in for supply’s yesterday and got nothing, came out with a salad, my work shut up shop as well, 1 day a week rota, mad world we live in with hoarders and idiots, END OF DAY’S, on a lighter note Disney + coming soon here lol
First minister of Scotland:
Pollution gases falling:
I agree with Patric that the media are reporting this in such a way as to scare the s*** out of people. Presumably they think this will get the message across, however historically health promotion campaigns that have focussed on scaring people into making positive health choices, have been less effective compared to those that serve to educate as to how people can make positive choices to protect health.
There needs to be more emphasis on informing people constructively on how best to stay well.
Great read as usual Patric…I tend to go back and forth on worry level. Not close to panic…especially here in Northern Maine…very large county, sparsely populated. A lot of Canadian shoppers likely upset, they often take the 5 min drive across the bridge for gas/milk/other food…I just wish someone in the media would get to these companies that make masks, ventilators, and other PPE. Hold these company CEOs and others accountable. Where are these companies stating they will run 24/7…hiring extra staff, doing whatever they can. I monitor a lot of news..a lot, all sides…I have not heard anything or anyone discuss this.
Nevada Dept. of Health reports 109 Positive COVID-19 cases Statewide (and the 2nd death related to COVID-19 in Clark County per the Southern Nevada Health District), but these figures are minimal when you factor a population of 3 million has over 40 million visitors a year (and how many of those visitors potentially infected anyone) compared to other States …..
The more tests being done, the more Positive (infected) results will be reported – that is a given you can’t let be a negative about …. but you can take steps to quarantine yourself at home (only visit the stores when necessary) and keep a clean household.
The Mrs and I are getting over our allergy season (we couldn’t get tested because of that), she misses getting her nails done (and the hair salon) but we can get over a month at home paid leave (it’s IF this lasts longer then a month at home that will probably drive us both nuts (lol!) ….
I 💜 this Mini Event (I know we didn’t get Item Limits, but the Prizes and the dialogue are great) and thank you Bob (or Barbara). We’re glad practically everywhere here offers delivery, pick up, or will hold for you to purchase later for 24 hours.
These are challenges for those home schooling kids, or having to help elderly family members (definitely no more appointments at the VA). We think about are personnel at Nellis Air Force Base and look forward to when things are less chaotic (aka less false news online). We also got a good chuckle from today’s public address (c’mon it’s pure comedy to watch)😂
I’m not freaking, but 2 1/2 weeks ago we purchased a months worth of groceries.
Why am I concerned, super concerned?
Lisa had bronchitis a few years ago and anything dealing with breathing hits her hard.
As for me, my doctors have told me to avoid prolonged coughing (along with tripping, falling, lifting ten pounds). Failure to follow this advice could snap my spinal cord and result in quadriplegic.
So, we damn well are taking this serious. The death rate, per the CDC is ten times the flu. People in my age group have a 4 to 5 percent chance of not surviving. One in twenty.
My MIL, has less than a one in five chance.
Hospitals are asking high schools and water district labs to donate masks and gloves and goggles.
I ain’t gonna panic, but I do take it very, very, seriously.
I’m going to drop off these Rotary food boxes fir the elderly shut ins, and run and hide!!
OK. Just remember… panic is a choice.
Panic is a choice.
And if you drop off a box of food on my porch, it will remain there. I’ll don my cleaning gloves, open the box outside and wipe down every food item in the box prior to bringing it inside. And toss the box in the recycle bin.
Worked in the food industry for years, R&D
Worked in Water Industry QA lab, microbiology, low level microbes, Coliform, Fecal Coliform, proper sanitation.
So…you are eating styrofoam during the pandemic? Sheesh.
The Food Boxes are full of the same food you get from the grocery store…along with produce, and bread products. Sheesh. It’s not a freakin’ soup kitchen……..
An interesting discussion thread about coronavirus on a message board about synthesizers!coronary
I have to take issue with Patrics claim that influenza is way more deadly.
According to the CDC for the 2018-19 period there were an estimated 35.5 Million cases of flu which resulted in only 34, 200 deaths Giving a mortality rate of just under 0.1% in comparison deaths related to Covid 19 are at least 2.9% even higher for over 70s and / or those with underlying respiratory illnesses
Sooooooo.. what I should have written is that Influenza has KILLED more people this year that Covid-19…by a multiple of ten or more. Fact.
So…when the mortality numbers of Covid catch the flu (which we pretty much ignore every year) I’ll panic. Or not.
That occurred to me after I made my original post. What worries me is the potential consequences of a disease with more than a 2% mortality rate and worse for older and already sick people.
I’m guessing the much power mortality rates of most flu epidemics is due in part to vaccinations and our pre existing immunity from prior exposure. COvid 19 is new and our immune systems are completely unprepared for how to deal with it.
I agree though that the media response is disproportionate when you consider that many more people die of starvation every day and they rarely ever give even a brief nod to this fact.
Well…apparently, most of the states are considering liquor stores and cannabis dispensaries as “essential” business while everything else shuts down. I am loving the insane decision that are being made by leadership. So…what they are saying is…”sorry about your jobs…sorry about your recreation…sorry about your churches…sorry about all forms of social engage,ent in person…PLEASE STAY HOME and get loaded and tanked.”
excellent post… in my area they closed the golf course.. that will have many freaking out… lol
I can honestly say the Strip Clubs are still open in Las Vegas (just don’t ask what they do with the hand sanitizer (lol!) – the Mrs and I saw the billboards off the freeway and died laughing all the way home. 😂
Don’t forget the hoochie repellant 😂
Dayuuuum… that’s hella crazy… I feel like i just got the virus looking at that..
This occurred once and LVMPD put a stop to this behaviour (I’ll never forget turning to the Mrs and inquiring ” traffic has never been this bad on the Vegas Strip” to which she pointed to what’s going on and said “OMG! Hoochies fighting in the street! This is like a terrible cartoon!”)
Yeah keep the 🤡’s out of our Town
I love Vegas! You know those small trucks that drive endlessly up and down the strip, towing a small trailer with a lit-up, double sided billboard advertising the various strip clubs? Hubby and I call them “Titty Trucks” and laugh like children every time we see one. Haven’t been in a few years. Gotta make another trip if the world doesn’t end – and when the buffets are back! 🤣
That’s exactly what we call those, too 😂
It’s hard not to laugh at the attempts to advertise the wanton in this town (wait until Resort World is completed, along with the biggest change coming to Downtown – and of course the new Stadium for the Raiders).
Interesting post again, especially those figures that you listed. Bear in mind that the recovery totals for some of the countries that are still in the early stages of the pandemic will also rise sharply over the coming weeks.
I’m still confident a drug to suppress this virus ( not a vaccine, that’s a while away yet ) will soon be available & should put the brakes on the death toll.
Thanks for your common sense take on things; I do, however, have to add a few thoughts that are/will soon be supported by stats/data:
1) the number of cases in the US is, and will continue, to rise logarithmically, as will the number of patients requiring ICU’s. At some point, probably in the next two weeks, hospitals in some areas (NYC for sure) will be come overwhelmed with patients needing ICU care and will have to triage and ration care. The result will be a dramatic increase in the death toll, which will have emotional, economic and political consequences.
2) the people who are part of the “recovered” group, especially if they are confirmed to have immunity, will be critical to the recovery from this crisis, as they can go back to work with little/no risk of reinfection.
3) the human race will survive, but the emotional and economic trauma will take a long time to recover from. Elections are even more critical than ever. For those in the US, contact your representatives and urge them to legislate required mail in ballots (some states have this already, but many still do not).
You mean the number of cases will rise exponentially. I wish the number of cases were rising logarithmically. That would actually be the best case scenario. Hopefully, that happens sooner rather than later.
The prevailing medical wisdom is that if you get COVID-19, and recover, you will almost certainly be immune from getting it again, but only for a year or two. By then the virus will probably have mutated, so you will be vulnerable to the newer version, but at least you don’t have to face the situation where you get it now, and again a month from now. It is believed that a form of COVID-19, and hopefully a milder version, will become part of the 4 or 5 or 6 strains of flu that circulate every year. Each year medical researchers look at the Australian flu season (since their winter comes before ours) and choose a handful of flu strains that they think will be the most prevalent for us in North America in a few months time. They then formulate that winter’s flu shot. It is absolutely a guessing game. Some years they are off the mark, and the vaccine is not very effective. Last year the vaccine was only 20% effective, making it a bad year. This year it is about 50% effective. That sounds low, but it is considered pretty good. Please note that while the flu vaccine does not protect you against COVID-19, it is still a good idea to get a shot every year. It is entirely possible to get the seasonal flu and COVID-19 at the same time, and if you are unlucky enough to have that happen, your recovery will be longer, harder, and less certain.
Life…living…death…quality of life…were ALL uncertain BEFORE this. What we are doing right now, is guaranteeing that the quality of life for the VAST majority of the population, is going to be inconceivably altered for the worse..perhaps forever.
What is the percentage of people that die myriad other ways? Oh… the rest of the people that always died. So…now..there will likely be fewer traffic accidents, fewer deaths in bar fights…
But the rate for suicide, obesity (from panic eating and lack of exercise, heart disease, death from stress related causes…will likely increase, because we MIGHT get a bad case of the flu…which is what this is for the overwhelming number of people that get Covid-19. Perfect.
Patric, I’m uncertain of what your point is. Do you think that we shouldn’t be isolating from each other to try to “starve” this virus of new hosts? Of course all the closures and loneliness and boredom are affecting our collective quality of life, and the job losses are catastrophic. But do we really have a choice? What would you have us do? Just continue on as before, and if people get sick, they either recover or they don’t? If you were in charge, what would be your strategy? I’m not trying to pick a fight with you; I’m genuinely curious what you think would be a better course of action, since it sounds like you don’t approve of this one.
Yes. We have choices. And that is to be reasonable…practice social distancing whenyiu can…but also realize that the statistics, even in Italy…are on the side of those who don’t get it, survive with mild symptoms, or survive more severe symptoms.
Start with the overall population of China… do the math…perhaps you’ll sleep better.
Sorry…missed this one.
No…there is a HUGE difference between ignoring common sense mandates that are for the betterment of everyone…and Panicking to the point of going so far the other way, as to create an entirely different set of problems (increased mental health issues, suicide rates, economic disasters).
But in EVERY scenario…those who don’t get it at all, and those who are recovering, are waaaaaaay more than those who are dying. So, keeping a positive attitude about it, just makes more sense to me. Mental health, and an upbeat attitude are parts of the “healing process” as well. Stress kills. Panic Kills. And Anxiety makes us do things in an irrational manner.
Great post. It’s nice to see someone with a positive attitude.
Let’s be honest – who missing crafting now? I know we all loathed it but man – maybe it is time to bring crafting back to the next event!