What’s in the Mystery Box?

Mysterybox TSTOUpdated Below the fold with details from the April 1st, 2015 Mystery Box update. 

The Mystery Box is a premium item that you can purchase for 6 donuts or you can get it for free every 5 days, as a bonus for playing the game every day. The Mystery Box could contain a premium item or it could contain a non-premium item, which one it reveals to you truly is a Mystery.

The Mystery Box is typically one of those premium items I would tell you not to purchase and save your donuts, unless of course you’re desperate for a Lemon Tree (the Mystery Box is the only way to get one), because you can earn one every 5 days and there’s no guarantee of a premium item. However, for those of you purchasing the Mystery Box, or just curious about what might be inside of yours every 5 days there are a few things you should know.

With the Mystery Box there’s a game going on behind the scenes, (pretty much like all games of chance) every time you either buy a Mystery Box for 6 donuts or collect one as a daily reward. The game internally generates a random number and each item available through the Mystery Box has a number assigned to it. The prize you win is the item that has the first number that’s greater than the random number generated.

So what are the prizes you can win in a Mystery Box and the Odds of winning them? Here’s a complete breakdown of your chances:

Prize Odds
Mystery Box 10.98%
Lemon Tree/$250 10%
Parking Lot 10%
Brown Fence 10%
Tree 10%
Large Hedge 10%
Newspaper Dispenser 10%
Picket Fence 4%
Gazebo 4%
Angel Topiary 4%
$500 4%
Premium Bench 4%
$1,000 4%
10 Donuts 2%
Squeaky Voice Teen/30 Donuts 2%
Homer Buddha 1%
$2,500 0.01%
30 Donuts 0.004%
Tire Fire/40 Donuts 0.002%
Lard Lad 0.001%

Of course it’s all a matter of luck –and I did win my Squeaky Voice Teen via the Free 5 Day Mystery Box when I first started playing.

What’s the best thing the Mystery Box ever awarded you?

Update: On April 1st, 2015 EA rolled out a new Mystery Box.  Basically the same concept, just with a new look and some new items added.  Here’s a look at what happened with that:

There was a new look to the box icon.  It now looks like this:

Tapped_Out_Mystery_Box_Revised

Same concept, however.  Spent 6 donuts…or wait once a week for your Daily Play Bonus and get one for free..and open a Mystery Box for a chance to win some cool Premium items, and some freemium duds.

box3

2015-04-02 13.01.27

There is an end date indicated in the files of April 30th, 2015. However, it’s not indicated if this is the end date for the new box or just the end date for the free box awarded with the initial questline.  (You should be awarded a free box between April 1st and April 30th, 2015, after a some dialogue between Mr. Burns and Smithers.  You can view more about that on this post)  Once April 30th hits, and we know for sure what will happen…we will update this post with the details.  Update: It appears that my initial prediction was correct and April 30th just marked the end of the free Mystery Box initial questline.  So the new Mystery Box contents are here to stay!

Here’s a look at what’s inside the new box:

Item Unique? Value
Khlav Kalash Stand No $760
Minnow Pond No $4,500
Bomb Shelter No $5,600
Chalmer’s 1979 _ONDA No $9,800
10 Donuts No 10 Donuts
30 Donuts No 30 Donuts
Squeaky Voiced Teen Yes 30 Donuts
Channel 6 News Van No 40 Donuts
Itchy & Scratchy Billboard No 40 Donuts
Tire Fire Yes 40 Donuts
Kearney Yes 60 Donuts
Blue Haired Lawyer Yes 90 Donuts
Lard Lad Donuts No 110 Donuts
Lemon Tree Yes n/a only way to get is the box

Note: We’ve decided against posting the odds for the revised boxes..and here’s why.  First, there’s a ton of conflicting information out there about it.  Some are saying one set of odds, some are saying another.  There’s one version that we follow from the files…HOWEVER.  It’s more complicated than saying you just get this ____ % of the time.  There’s a script it follows, that basically says if you don’t get ____ than you have ____ % chance of getting ____.  And moves down the line like that.  So because it’s conflicting and confusing information.  We’ve decided not to post the odds.  Just enjoy the free boxes that you get & don’t worry about what the odds say you’ll get.

Hope that helps you get a better understanding of the Mystery Box!

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118 responses to “What’s in the Mystery Box?

  1. I realize this post goes way way back but did anyone notice that the box now says 95% non premium vs. 5% premium?

    Liked by 1 person

  2. 1,367 BOXES LATER…

    First of all I want to thank @Charles for his analysis of the mystery box contents (https://tstoaddicts.com/2013/08/23/whats-in-the-mystery-box/comment-page-4/#comment-570207).
    I’ve played through his list and it worked. Once. But there were odd changes.
    Now that I am able to buy at least one complete sequence I’ve tracked 1,367 boxes down. Here’s what I found out:

    CHARLES

    Charles’ list contains 180 boxes. He has found five distinct sequences, two of them repeating.
    This is my evaluation of his list in Excel:
    Bildschirmfoto 2018-01-21 um 09.22.34

    MY OBSERVATIONS

    Basically there is a repeating pattern every 19 (short sequence) or 23 (normal sequence) boxes: BS KK NV 10 BS KK BB.
    For compatibility with Charles’ observation I take BS KK BB as the start of a sequence and BS KK NV 10 as the end.

    Charles’ list can be considered as a super-sequence.
    There is also a pattern in the structure of a super-sequence: It begins with one (or more) short sequence (roman number I), then at least one sequence II, III, IV. The least desirable sequence V (rather expensive) comes at least three times.

    For every sequence there are variants (a, b) but the general ordering seems to be unharmed by variations.

    After 1,367 boxes I close my observatory.
    More surprises are lurking in the deep jungle of statistical possibilities but I don’t think they’ll change the overall outcome.

    EVALUATION

    Bildschirmfoto 2018-01-21 um 09.21.57

    The net price, considering the donuts found in the MBs, is about 3 donuts per box (currently more since I closed my sheet with 4 times sequence V 😬).
    Same result as Charles.

    The donuts per bonus percent were better than Charles halfway through my own list but has also worsened at the end. Fracking sequence V!
    It seems to be about 7.9 D/%.

    You get (nearly) as much billboards as news vans – though I miss a NV due to a rogue sequence 😁.

    May the Box be with you! 🤓

    Like

    • Nice work. My latest count (after 2 rogue boxes and 1 lost 30 donut prize due to connection error) is 7.8 to 8.0 per 1%, depending on where you are in the sequence. This is based on 338% increase.

      Like

      • Love all the data that has been collected on this … just started playing again a few months ago after being away for a few years (I house farmed back then – 900 blue , 320 orange houses generating income)
        I’m able to generate 50-60 donuts a day from flipping KEMs, will the sequence start at random or continue on from where you left off?
        If it just continues that it would be more advantageous for me to buy them as i earn them to gain the % as I go

        Like

        • The sequence is not random, but is very large so it may appear random at times. To maximize benefit you would buy whenever you can. I find it more efficient to buy when I have 24 donuts. And you need to keep track of time left on the collider.

          Like

          • oh definitely keep track of the collider, its been on steady for 2 months or more now (once i discovered KEM farming), glad I re-read the data on mystery boxes though … I scoffed at them back in January when I tried opening some

            Like

    • Great research, and thank you for sharing. I wonder if the boxes truly follow any set of sequences though. Just today I’ve gotten 2x 30-donuts within 3 boxes (30, MP, 30), and 2 MP’s in succession. I think it might be fully random.

      I also don’t have such good luck as to average 9 donuts per 1% bonus. Mine comes out closer to 13-16 per. Makes it such that boxes aren’t always best; I have to watch the vault for rebate deals that come out better. :/

      Like

      • I would suggest you keep track for a few hundred donuts that you invest (don’t include the donuts you receive in return (30 net 24, 10 net 4) in the “cost”) Figure the “average” when you get the 30, 30 sequence.

        Like

  3. Not sure about all these patterns, but I did create a spreadsheet in Excel and this is what I found:

    153 boxes purchased
    22 Khav Kalosh
    20 Minnow Ponds
    20 Bomb Shelters
    13 Lard Lads
    12 10 donuts reward
    11 30 donuts reward
    17 Newsvans
    18 Itchy and Scratchy Billboards
    20 Chalmer’s _ONDA

    Total cost 918 donuts
    less 450 gained from boxes
    Total net cost 468 donuts
    Gained 52 bonus percent
    Bonus % per donut spent net = 9 donuts per percent.

    All told, I think this is still the most economical way to get bonus % for KEM farming, since 100 donuts would yield 11.11% bonus percent, vs the Jet Bike in vault being 2% for 30 donuts only giving 6% for 90 donuts. I’m still only at 333% bonus for KEM farming, and I think it takes over 1k bonus % to be able to buy premium items as they are released, so still a long way to go.

    Looking forward to other tips, suggestions, and as always, thanks for the work you do Safi!!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Yup, next to the Beach Hideaways, Mystery Boxes are the best. My pleasure.

      Like

    • nice job, and keep up the good work boosting that bonus. small correction… jet bike in the vault has a 10 donut rebate, so it only costs 20 donuts for a 2% bump, yielding 10 donuts per percent. for those near the item limit and are concerned about maximizing bonus per item, the jet bike in the vault might be the better choice.

      Like

      • Good catch, sorry you are right on the Jet Bike my math was a little off. Also good point on the item limit, I am lucky I am not there yet.

        Like

  4. Here is the mystery box sequence:

    BS: Bomb Shelter
    LL: Lard Lad Donuts
    CO: Chalmers’ 1979 _ONDA
    KK: Khlav Kalash Stand
    MP: Minnow Pond
    BB: Itchy & Scratchy Billboard
    NV: Channel 6 New Van
    10: 10 Donuts
    30: 30 Donuts
    (n) repeats n times

    BS KK BB CO MP LL BB CO MP LL 30 CO MP NV 30 BS KK NV 10
    BS KK BB 10 BS KK BB CO MP LL BB CO MP NV 30 CO MP NV 30 BS KK NV 10
    BS KK BB 10 BS LL BB CO MP LL BB CO MP NV 30 CO KK NV 30 BS KK NV 10 (2)
    BS KK BB 10 MP LL BB CO MP LL BB CO MP NV 30 BS KK NV 30 BS KK NV 10
    BS KK BB CO MP LL BB CO MP LL BB CO MP NV 30 BS KK NV 10 BS KK NV 10 (3)

    I hope this helps you find where you are.
    Net 44, 58, and 88 donuts.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Must have changed the odds, bc my sequence went as follows, CO, MP, LL, BB, CO, MP, LL, BB, CO, then I stopped bc I dropped 54 doughnuts, it doesn’t follow your sequence didn’t want to deplete my doughnuts.

      Like

      • Keep track. As you can see on the bottom it goes 14 boxes (84 donuts) before it hits 30 donuts. You may be 12 donuts away from the NV and 18 from the 30 donuts. I always start with a buffer of 100 donuts before starting a sequence.

        Like

        • It worked, next in sequence was MP, NV, 30. Don’t see this pattern on your list but I’m a happy camper to recoup some doughnuts and earned some %. It’s totally my error. But just don’t see it.

          Like

          • Just keep track of your own sequence. My overall sequence is around 180, with smaller sequences repeating. My guess, yours will also result in a percentage average of less than 9 donuts per 1%.

            Like

            • Ya thanks, I’m 72 doughnuts in, have gotten 30 back and have gotten 4% for a net of 42 doughnuts and 4%. Not bad. Would keep playing but gotta get vault things and save some doughnuts before they dissapear. Thanks for the help.

              Like

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